UMAC Championship and Playoff Scenario

There has been some confusion over what will happen in different scenarios concerning the UMAC Championship and who will claim the automatic qualifier (AQ) into the NCAA Playoffs. In order to clear things up, I have done some research and contacted the UMAC's SID Greg Johnson and here is what I have learned:
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Scenario 1:

Northwestern defeats Greenville:
-Northwestern claims UMAC Championship outright and AQ into NCAA Playoffs
-UM-Morris at St. Scholastica result is inconsequential

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Scenario 2:

Greenville defeats Northwestern & St. Scholastica defeats UM-Morris:
-Northwestern (7-1), Greenville (7-1), and St. Scholastica (7-1) will share the UMAC Championship
-There will be a random draw to detemine who receives the AQ into the NCAA playoffs according to the UMAC's official criteria for tiebreaking (from the Official UMAC Website):

http://umacathletics.com/custompages/bylaws/UMAC%20Football%20Sport%20Guidelines.pdf
II. NCAA Championship Automatic Qualifier (“AQ”) Determination & Tiebreaker Criteria

1. Best conference record (based upon winning % of conference contests)
1. Each team will have a .875 win percentage
2. If two way tie then head-to-head result
1. Not applicable
3. If three-way tie then head-to-head results amongst three (2-0 advances)
1. Head-to-head results amongst the three are 1-1 for each team
4. If three-way tie without 2-0 record, then record against rest of conference standings in descending order of finish (4th place, 5th place, etc.)
1. As each team will have only lost to each other and have defeated all other UMAC opponents, their records will be equal against the rest of conference.
5. Random draw (if three or more teams) or coin flip (two teams) by UMAC Commissioner
1. This will be the criteria used to determine who receives the AQ into the NCAA playoffs.

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Scenario 3:

Greenville defeats Northwestern & UM-Morris defeats St. Scholastica:
-Northwestern (7-1) and Greenville (7-1) will share the UMAC Championship
-Because Greenville won the head-to-head matchup, they will receive the AQ into the NCAA Playoffs according to part 2 of the UMAC AQ Tiebreaker Criteria listed above.
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After all of this is determined, the NCAA playoff brackets will be assembled and we will learn who the UMAC will face in the first round. D3football.com writer Pat Coleman has made bracket predictions and the likely opponent (due to the NCAA leaning towards reducing costs and likely shuffling playoff brackets to limit travel distances) will be the No. 4 ranked St. Thomas Tommies of St. Paul, Minnesota. If the NCAA does not limit the travel distance, then the other predicted opponent would have the UMAC champion traveling out to McMinnville, Oregon to face Linfield College.

Week 9 Predictions: Tommy's Picks

Tommy's Picks (4 of 5 Week 8, 29 of 38 on the season)

I took a shot on Crown last week and I was feeling pretty good about myself for the most of the game. Then came overtime and the dreaded extra point. It really isn't fair to the Storm that they have to kick the ball in between the cross bars from so far away after they score a touchdown in order to get a bonus point. I mean, who came up with that stupid rule anyway? I was so close to tying Jay going into the last week and wiping that smug grin off of his face. Instead, I find myself in a two game hole needing to toss up a Hail Mary. I can only hope I have better results than Durley did in his final throw of the game against Northwestern. (Sorry... that's the last shot at the Eureka QB for the week. I promise.)

MacMurray @ Eureka - If Eureka loses this one they might as well just shut down their football program and invest their money in something more useful, like their "Ronald Reagan Went Here so You Should Too" campaign. It is certainly within the realm of possibility for MacMurray to win this one. They are getting better as the season goes along and Eureka has lost 3 in a row. Still, it is hard for me to imagine Durley losing to MacMurray at home in the final game of his career. Unless, of course, he has Brett Favre syndrome and feels the need to throw an interception in his final pass attempt. Eureka has had a disappointing season but they are still a lot better than MacMurray. The Red Devils send their seniors out on a high note with a strong performance and a win at Pete FioRito Stadium at McKinzie Field (The only field with a longer name than that is Mall of America Field at the Hubert H Humphrey Metrodome). Eureka 31 MacMurray 13

Crown @ Martin Luther - Crown let me down last week but I am going with them again this week for 3 primary reasons: 1) Jay picked Martin Luther 2) Crown has more upperclassmen at key positions with QB Wes Safford and RB Amos Schmidt. I give them the edge in a close game over the Knights who have freshmen at key positions with QB Luke Rothe and RB Matt Olson 3) MLC has the most ridiculous system for sending in their play calls that I have ever seen. In case you haven't noticed, after every play Rothe runs over to the offensive coordinator who proceeds to open up a recipe box full of color coded index cards. He then hands one of these cards to Rothe who runs over to the huddle and holds it up for everyone to see. And, naturally, he tucks the card into his pants before running the play (Well obviously. Where else would you put an index card with the play on it?) It can only be so long before teams start stealing the cards out of Rothe's pants while he is laying on the ground after he gets tackled. I can't wait until I see a 15 yard personal foul penalty called against an MLC opponent for "Unsportsmanlike Reaching into the Pants of a Defenseless Quarterback." Crown 27 Martin Luther 21

St. Scholastica @ Minnesota Morris - These two teams will be amped for this game. Well, at least I would suspect they would be. I know that the boys from Morris will be. They have rallied together with an us-against-the-world mentality and nothing would put the cherry on top of their already successful season like an upset over St. Scholastica at home in their final game of the year. St. Scholastica has to know that they still have a legitimate shot at a playoff berth with a win in this one. It is not at all out of the question for Greenville to beat Northwestern. And thanks to Greg Johnson, UMAC Sports Information Director, we have confirmation that in the event of a Northwestern loss and Scholastica win the Saints would possess the tie-breaker and go to the playoffs. ***(UPDATE: NWC loss and CSS win creates a 3-way tie and automatic qualifier is determined by random draw)*** I suspect that CSS will put their lackluster performances of the past few weeks behind them and come out full steam ahead against the Cougars. The talent level of these two teams is a lot closer than I thought earlier in the year, but I still think that Scholastica is better than Morris and with so much on the line will find a way to win. St. Scholastica 28 Morris 17

Greenville @ Northwestern - We have done our best here at UMAC Central to build up excitement each and every week of the season in order to keep our ratings high - our advertisers like it that way. But the reality is that we all know that in terms of who would win the conference there were only going to be 3 games that meant anything this year - Scholastica vs. Greenville, Northwestern vs. Scholastica, and now the final piece of the puzzle is Greenville vs. Northwestern. Algebra would tell us that since Scholastica blew out Greenville and Northwestern beat Scholastica, Scholastica > Greenville, Northwestern > Scholastica and therefore Northwestern > Greenville. (That's called the Transitive Property folks. Some bonus math for you there.) However, anyone who knows anything about football knows that it is all about matchups. I have felt since the beginning of the year that Greenville matches up extremely well against the Eagles. Northwestern has yet to beat the Panthers in their 2 games against them since Greenville joined the UMAC. You also have to consider the fact that Greenville was behind 23-0 at halftime last season against NWC before scoring 27 in the fourth quarter to win. No matter how big of a lead the Eagles are able to build, the Panthers have to always feel like they still have a chance. The film tells me that I should go with Northwestern. There seems to be no way that Greenville's defense can stop the Eagles' offensive attack. But, for some reason, I have that feeling deep in my gut that the Panthers are going to pull out a huge upset on the road in the most exciting UMAC game of the year. I'm going with the inverse score of Jay. And let the UMAC chaos begin. Greenville 38 Northwestern 35 

Week 9 Predictions- Jay's Picks

Jay’s Picks (5 of 5 Week 8, 31 of 38 on the Season)

Luck was on my side last week. I even guessed a score correctly. This is by far the most exciting week of UMAC football. Northwestern has a share of the UMAC championship, but Greenville and St. Scholastica are still holding on with a death grip. Ok, St. Scholastica is slipping into the abyss a little bit but all can be forgotten if everything falls into place for them. The question of the hour is who will be representing the UMAC in the playoffs. Tommy will have to post his picks after the games are done if he wants to catch me in the standings. Have a great weekend everyone and enjoy UMAC championship weekend.

MacMurray @ Eureka- This game will be a tight one. QB Sam Durley will want to forget last week’s debacle that included 3 interceptions. In games against legitimate competition, St. Scholastica and Northwestern, Durley has thrown for only 226 yards a game, 0 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions with a less than stellar completion percentage. In those two games, that’s the equivalent of a 49.17 NFL passer QB rating. I don’t know if that will cast a shadow on the 736 yard record to NFL scouts or not, but in light of all that Durley might want to end his college football career on a slightly higher note. MacMurray has been competitive all season and I see that trend continuing this Saturday, but Eureka has to be feeling pretty good after nearly beating Northwestern and Durley will be out to prove he is better than the three interception game last week.Eureka 31 MacMurray 23

Crown @ Martin Luther- I have been looking forward to this game ever since Martin Luther started to figure out their offense. Both teams are extremely young. Crown has a bevy of young guys playing everywhere and Martin Luther’s two best players QB Luke Rothe and RB/WR Matt Olson are both freshman. Youth that has a lot of talent also tends to make a lot of mistakes that don’t occur on experienced football teams. Rothe’s 5 interceptions last week for example. Looking forward to next year, Northwestern has to replace some very integral players including QB Josh Balzer, WR Brian Lecheler, DE Josh Swore, DB Mitch Swanson, LB’s Kendall Sommerlot and Joey Bauman, and the list goes on and on. The Fighting Durley’s lose well…Durley. Morris loses both starting QB’s. St. Scholastica loses a lot of senior experience for the second year in a row. Greenville should be loaded again, but the rest of the UMAC is fairly uncertain. This game could go a long way in showing who the players will be for next year. Bold prediction way too far in advance…Knights will finish in top 3 of conference next year AND Crown will find a kicker.  Martin Luther 24 Crown 20

St Scholastica @ Minnesota Morris- Before the Northwestern game, most people would have said this would be a 20-30 point blowout by St. Scholastica. Not so fast my friends. Ok, a couple of weeks ago you could have counted me in as the torch bearer for St. Scholastica blowing out Morris. Oh how the tides have turned. Morris has always been confident, even when sometimes they don’t really have any reason to be. St. Scholastica is like a little boy who just saw dad, their hero, get toasted in one-on-one basketball. Crushed, demoralized, and probably not bragging about dad's basketball skills anymore. The Saints look like they are just going through the motions right now. They are more talented than Morris, but Morris is good enough to beat St. Scholastica if the Saints decide to give the same type of effort that they did against Presentation. Morris has played the “It’s Jay and Tommy/ the World against us” card all season and will be very motivated to get a signature win that they have been lacking to this point. I keep repeating this, but St. Scholastica still has an opportunity to claim a share of the conference championship as well as represent the UMAC in the NCAA playoffs. If that’s not motivation enough, the Saints deserve to lose. St. Scholastica 34 Morris 27

GAME OF THE WEEK

Greenville @ Northwestern- Nobody’s surprised with this game of the week. This is as close to a conference championship game as you will see in the UMAC. If Greenville wins, they will still need help from Morris to get into the playoffs but it has all the signs and feel of a big time game. Here’s a couple reasons why: 1) The last two times they have played each other have been crazy games decided by a touchdown or less 2) Last season Northwestern dominated until basically the fourth quarter and then fell apart as Greenville pulled of the comeback 3) QB Josh Balzer is the best QB in the UMAC(sorry Durley, but see my post above) and QB Brendan Chambers is the most dynamic QB in the UMAC 4) RB’s Manny Gamble and NWC’s RB’s Josh Sinnen and Chris Simon-Wallace all average 6.3 yards a carry or more. I could keep going but you get the point. Here are some matchups to keep an eye on:

1. Greenville’s #1 rushing attack vs. Northwestern #2 rush defense
2. QB Josh Balzer vs. Greenville secondary
3. NWC’s OLB’s and SS vs. QB Brendan Chambers and RB Manny Gamble

Keys to the game:

Northwestern:

1. The secondary is going to have to be able to tackle in space because if they don’t it could be a long day.
2. Hit QB Brendan Chambers. It doesn’t matter if he has the ball or if he doesn’t. Make him pitch the ball.
3. Consistency on offense. It might seem like a little bit of a track meet until your defense figures things out, but don’t panic. This offense has been very good all year. Don’t try to be who you aren’t.

Greenville:

1. Do not turn the ball over! I repeat…do not turn the ball over! It killed you against St. Scholastica.
2. Stop the run and stop big plays in the passing game. Force QB Josh Balzer to consistently convert through the passing game.
3. Force turnovers. Northwestern hasn’t turned the ball over much this year, but if Greenville wants to beat the Eagles they need to force the issue.

Like I mentioned above, this game could get into a little bit of a track meet offensively. Nobody has really stopped Greenville from running the football; even St. Scholastica didn’t stop them. Greenville’s achilles heel has been turning the ball over. Even if it does turn into a shootout, Northwestern has the firepower to go toe-to-toe with Greenville. This game will be filled with a lot of emotion and intensity that the UMAC often doesn’t have late in the season. This type of game is so rare late in the season that I’m predicting something even more strange— a last minute field goal will decide the game. Northwestern 38 Greenville 35

The Week that Was: Week 8

Have you ever had deja, deja, deja, deja vu? As the dust settled from week 8 of UMAC action I was left with one clear, overriding thought - At this point in the season, the teams of the UMAC are what they are. And in case you were wondering what exactly they are, I detailed that for you below. It may look a lot like Power Rankings, but give me a break. I can't keep coming up with fresh ideas for articles indefinitely.

Northwestern - Best team in the conference. They have proven it week in and week out. They certainly still have a big hurdle to overcome in Greenville, but at this point they have absolutely earned the right to be called the best team in the UMAC by destroying the teams they should destroy and coming out with a couple close victories on the road over St. Scholastica and Eureka. The Eagles definitely have weaknesses and are by no means unbeatable, but they just keep winning.

St. Scholastica - Good but losing air fast. For the past year and a half, the St. Scholastica Saints had this swagger about them and they thought that they were unbeatable. Everyone from their players to their coaches to their fans felt vastly superior to every other team in the conference. Then little old Northwestern went up to Duluth and stole their aura of invincibility. Ever since then, teams think they can beat the Saints and their own players feel the same way. Suddenly they are going in to overtime with Presentation. Yikes. Still a good team, but something has changed.

Greenville - Quietly good. After taking a 45-3 shellacking from Scholastica, the Panthers have taken a back seat to NWC and CSS in the conference race. But they have quietly gone about their business and beaten everyone they have played since that time. It has not always been pretty, but for the second year in a row Greenville has an opportunity to string together 7 straight wins to end the season. That is, if their defense can get out of its own way. We will find out soon enough.

UM-Morris - Just keeps winning... sort of. Not only has it not always been pretty, it has been downright ugly at times. But the Cougars do keep winning. And while it took a furious comeback and a missed extra point for them to beat Crown, they did win and their are no asterisks next to their record.* Senior leadership at key positions (including double the senior leadership at quarterback)gives them the edge in close games against evenly matched opponents. They seem to believe in themselves and maybe that gives them a shot this week against a St. Scholastica team who seems to have lost some confidence.

Eureka - The all-hype team. Losses to Scholastica, Greenville, Morris, and Northwestern prove that Eureka lacks the substance to compete at any sort of significant level. The last drive of the game against Northwestern was a perfect microcosm of their entire season. With an opportunity for a game-winning drive, the ball was in the hands of their senior, record-setting, star quarterback getting scouted by NFL teams. Everything was set up for a magical moment. And what happens? Interception. Third of the game by the way. Close, but no cigar. Just like their entire season.

Martin Luther - The scrappy battlers. They are completely outmatched across the board by nearly all of their opponents. But ask any of the top teams in the UMAC and they will tell you that they do not enjoy playing Martin Luther. I admire the attitude this team plays with. It's hard to root against the Knights this year.

Crown - So close, but yet so far. Another loss by a missed kick - second of the year. Talk about deja vu. They just can't quite get it done. At some point a loss is a loss and those losses are starting to stack up for Crown regardless of whether they are by 1 or 34.

MacMurray - Getting better, but not quite there (And by 'there' I mean the 7th best team in the conference) They battled Martin Luther but ended up on the wrong end of the scoreboard. The Highlanders have demonstrated some gumption, but the program is coming up short even more than Crown and Martin Luther.

Westminster - Inept. Passing 77 times wasn't the answer against MacMurray. So their coaches figured passing 79 times against Greenville was the solution. I am hoping for 90 passes this week. Westminster is really just ahead of its time. It's just a matter of time before the rest of the country realizes that you must pass over 80 times to win a game.




*Although they did lose to Hamline.

Q&A with Matt Olson

Our Week 8 Outstanding Athlete of the Week, the Martin Luther College Knights freshman RB/QB/SS Matthew Olson, recently answered a few questions for us about his football experience and his recent performance this past weekend which earned our recognition. Congratulations again Matt, keep playing hard and we wish you the best of luck through the rest of the season.

The Numbers:

RB Matt Olson (left) and QB Luke Rothe

Olson led the Knights in both rushing and receiving this past weekend with 212 rushing yards on 39 carries for an average of 5.4 yards per rush and and 4 catches for 54 yards and a touchdown. His 266 yards gained accounted for more than 60% of the Knights total offense and was only 31 yards shy of the opposing MacMurray Highlanders entire offensive production. In addition to his touchdown, Olson also ran for two 2-point conversions and caught one to contribute to 12 of MLC's 30 total points. Similarly to his teammate Luke Rothe, our week 6 Outstanding Athlete, Matt Olson is a very versatile player and has been moved around in the team throughout the year in an effort to find where he best fits. He started the first three games of the year at quarterback and had a 109 yard rushing game for the Knights in week 2. In week 4 he switched to safety for one game before switching back to offense and starting at running back in week 5. He has been in that role ever since. Olson is one of three players, along with Rothe and backup QB Josh Rathje, who have each rushed for, caught, and thrown a touchdown for the Knights this season.

Q&A:

What is your first football memory?

Playing offensive guard in the sixth grade.

What was the biggest key to your individual success in last week’s performance?

Just reading the holes that my line created for me.

Where does your recent performance rank for you on your list of individual best games?

It is definitely in the top two. The other game was a state semi final game but doing it at the college level definitely means alot to me.

What did you eat for breakfast on game day?

I ate cereal and a Big Texas. Not to much since we were on the road.

What is the biggest area you want to improve upon moving forward?

Getting faster and making cuts. I have never played running back before so this is all new to me.

What is going to be the key to your team succeeding this week?

Not turning the ball over, playing fundamentally sound football and ultimately scoring more points than the other team does.

What is on your pregame music playlist?

I honestly dont listen to music before sports. I like to just joke around and relax with the guys.

Who is your favorite NFL athlete?

Robert Griffin III. He is so athletic, he does it all and stays humble.

Where do you see yourself in 5 years?

Finishing up my last year of college (5 year course) and then moving on to be a high school teacher and coach.

What, if any, are your gameday rituals?

I don't really have any besides having fun with the guys and relaxing.