Iowa Wesleyan Preview

The Iowa Wesleyan Tigers are joining the UMAC this season and judging from all the tweets and posts we've received from them, they are excited to be a part of what we know as UMAC football. A former NAIA scholarship school now making the transition into Division III football, the Tigers still have players who were (are?) under scholarship on their roster. However, with the loss of a large senior class and several other players from last year, the Tigers will need to bring their new freshman class of 30 athletes up to speed very quickly if they hope to be a threat in the UMAC. Coming into the UMAC, the Tigers have the leadership and UMAC experience of head coach Tom Parkevich, who was previously the defensive coordinator for the first four years of the St. Scholastica football program from 2008-2011. The Tigers are coming off of a 3-8 season where they faced NAIA competition making it difficult to tell how they will match up against the teams in the UMAC.

Big Losses
There may be no team in the UMAC that lost more coming into this season than the Iowa Wesleyan Tigers. The Tigers graduated twenty-four seniors from their 2012 team with seven of them starting or contributing a good amount on offense. No loss hurts their offense more than the loss of starting QB Kevin McConnell. Not only did McConnell throw for nearly 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns, but he did it with a high efficiency rating. In addition to leading the team's passing attack, McConnell led the team in rushing with 522 yards and 9 touchdowns. Up front, the offense loses a lot on the line as LT Douglas Fuentes, LG Jordan Padgett, and RT James Daniel all wrapped up their college careers. McConnell's second favorite target, senior WR Buddy Guestella also graduated, along with the two running backs who received the majority of the carries in Brandon Harris and Daniel Veal.

Defensively, the Tigers graduated four of their starting front seven and seven defensive backs who  all received starts at some point in the season. Leading tackler, DL Richard Silva graduated after amassing 93 total tackles, 14 tackles-for-loss, and 3.5 sacks in the 2012 season. Overall, the Tigers graduated 14 of their top 20 tacklers on defense. In the defensive backfield the Tigers lose a lot of experience in those seven defensive backs, but S Duane Lee may be their biggest loss as he picked off opposing quarterbacks three times and led all DBs with 65 tackles, with 45 of those being solo tackles. The only two defensive starters who did not graduate were DL Artevin McNair and LB Carlos Morales, but neither player appears to be on the roster this year.

Key Returners
With only four returning starters on offense (former TE Jamarco Clark will be playing OLB), the Tigers will be come into the season with very little game experience and must rely on their few returners to bring the rest of the team up to speed. Look to WR Ridge Hobbs to be the leading producer this season on offense as he led the team in 2012 with 48 catches for 880 yards and 11 TDs. Looking to contribute alongside him are receivers LiMichael Peeples and Chase Tackett, who were the third and fourth leading receivers last season, respectively

Key to 2013
With very few returning starters and upperclassmen, the Tigers have to hope that their younger players will acclimate themselves quickly into the offensive and defensive schemes. Coaches may have to build new game plans around their players as they will have almost a completely different personnel from last season. But a big advantage for IWC is that they are virtually unknown to the UMAC opposition and it will be tough to game plan against the Tigers for the first few weeks. Therefore it is important for them to come out strong and fast if they hope to make an impact this season. If the Tigers' coaches are able to maximize the talent of their new players they could be a dangerous team. If not, they could be in for a long season in their new conference.

Prediction
Bottom line, we have no idea how to predict IWC finishes this year. We have never seen them before. So give us a break if we are completely off. Our prediction is based mostly off the fact that they played against better competition last season and should still have some scholarship athletes on their roster. Those facts combined with the Tigers' sheer enthusiasm on social media have us predicting the Tigers will edge out the MLC Knights and finish in 4th place in the UMAC with a 5-4 season.

Minnesota Morris Preview

The University of Minnesota-Morris Cougars are the enigma of UMAC football. They are impossible to figure out from week to week much less from season to season. A quick look at their 2012 campaign in which they finished 5-3 in the UMAC, good enough for a fourth-place finish, leaves you thinking this is a team on the brink of being a contender to win the conference in 2013. D3football.com certainly thinks highly of the Cougars ranking them ahead of Greenville in their national rankings and projecting them to finish the season with a 7-2 conference record. But quite frankly, d3football.com has about 14 other conferences they are more focused on and doesn’t know what they are talking about when it comes to UMAC football. Luckily, you have us to set everyone straight. Allow us to take a deeper look at Morris’ 2012 season. The Cougars certainly did some things well last season. They beat every team in the conference with the exception of the 3 teams that tied for first place. In the final week of the season they even had a good shot at beating Scholastica before falling 28-21. But let us not forget that in Week 1 the Cougars lost to Hamline. That is correct – the Hamline Pipers. They beat MacMurray by 3 points, Eureka by 4, and Crown by 1. As that old adage goes, “A win is a win” and I am not trying to take anything away from the Cougars, but you will have to excuse me if I am not brimming with excitement for a team that eked out a 3 point win over the 238^th ranked team in the country. Was 2012 a stepping stone season in which the Cougars demonstrated they are a team that knows how to win the close games or was it a season in which they had every break fall their way in close games and could have just as easily gone 4-6? Morris would want to believe they are right there with the top 3 teams – maybe just a little below. I would contend, however, that the chasm between those teams and Morris last year was the size of the Grand Canyon and, in reality, the teams that finished 4^th – 6^th were all pretty interchangeable.

Big Losses

It is tough when you lose a four-year starting quarterback. When you lose two of them in the same year you might as well close up shop. Of course, for most schools it would be impossible to lose two four-year starting quarterbacks in the same season, but that is part of the Cougars’ charm. As we all know by now, the Cougars rotated Dan Garrigan and Derrick Foss all season long without any apparent rhyme or reason to the substitutions other than the coaches wanted to make sure no feelings got hurt. The two QBs finished the year with very similar numbers and when combined actually made for one pretty respectable starter with 253 passing ypg, a 50% completion percentage, 25 TDs, and 9 INTs. As stupid as the Cougars rotating QB system was, they will miss the leadership and experience they had at that position last season. On the defensive side of the ball, Morris will miss linebackers Zeke Miller and Caleb Forstrom who were the 2^nd and 3^rd leading tacklers on the team in 2012.

Key Returners

The Cougars bring back both their best offensive and defensive player from last year’s squad in WR Brendon Foss and LB Cody Hickman. Foss is probably the best receiver in the conference averaging 112 receiving ypg in 2012 while compiling 8 TDs. I don’t think we need to get too carried away with Foss, calling him an NFL prospect and what not, but he is a good player on par with some of the other good receivers we have seen come through the UMAC in recent years. Hickman led the conference with 119 tackles last season. That number is strangely high – leading me to wonder if either the scorekeepers at Morris are getting a little happy with the assisted tackles or if Hickman is truly the only person on the defense that knows how to tackle. By comparison, Hickman had almost 30 more tackles than any player on Scholastica, Northwestern, or Greenville. Hmm…. Regardless, Hickman is clearly their best defensive player and the Cougars are glad to have him back. They will also expect big contributions from offensive returners Leandro Dower and Dalton DeGraffenreid who both demonstrated flashes of brilliance in 2012.

Keys to 2013

1.  Can they find a quarterback? – In a lot of ways, graduating two senior QBs will be good for UMM. They finally get to rid themselves of this nagging situation that had pestered them for 4 years. Maybe they can finally establish a starting QB that gets to play every game, every series and develop into the best player he can be. Asking a QB to be the leader of the team and get into a rhythm while playing half of the series is absurd. That is the good news. The bad news, however, is the reality that it is difficult to replace starting quarterbacks. We saw a huge drop-off last season from Scholastica’s offense going from Alex Thiery to a rookie in Tyler Harper. We saw it at Martin Luther when they lost Greg Holzhueter. We saw it a few years ago when Northwestern lost Zach Tarter. Replacing quarterbacks is not easy. Should we expect that Morris can more easily replace a starting QB than Scholastica, Northwestern, or MLC?

2. Can their offensive line improve? – The Cougars have had the worst offensive line in the conference, nay, in all of football the past two seasons. They have big guys that quite simply cannot move. It doesn’t matter how good your receivers or running backs are if you cannot get them the ball because the defensive line is in the backfield all game long. Until the Cougars find a way to put together a respectable offensive line they will not be able to do anything against the good teams of the UMAC.

Prediction

When putting together a team the first thing you want to establish is a quarterback. The second thing you want to establish is your offensive line. The Cougars have huge question marks at both. So, while Foss is an outstanding player and while they have arguably the best receiving corps in the conference and while their running backs will be above average and their defense will be decent, the Cougars will have a very disappointing 2013 campaign. Morris comes into this season expecting to make the jump to the top of the conference, but I foresee them going the other direction. The gap between the Cougars and Greenville, Scholastica, and Northwestern was too great last season for me to predict they finish better than any of those squads. The gap between Morris and the teams below them was not all that big and teams like Martin Luther, Westminster, and Crown return starters at QB while Morris does not. For that reason, Morris will drop to 3-6 in conference and finish in 7^th place. I will leave you with one final disclaimer, however. If there is one team in the UMAC I expect to prove me wrong, it is the Cougars. They did it last year on their way to 5 conference victories. So go ahead and use this as bulletin board material Cougar Nation. You are welcome.

Martin Luther Season Preview

You never really know what you are going to get from Martin Luther. They don’t run a traditional offense and they surely don’t have a normal depth chart. In 2012, Matt Olson played QB, S, and ended up at RB. Luke Rothe played DB, QB, and a little bit of WR. Expect the same kind of shuffling to occur this season. The Knights take their 50 something players that come to camp, and shift them all over until they play halfway decent football. The problem is that by the time they get it figured out on one side of the ball, the other side of the ball loses nearly every starter.

Last year, the defense kept Martin Luther competitive, but the offense was horrific as they tried to find a starting QB. If the offense had even been decent, they probably could have pulled out victories against Morris and Eureka. Finally, towards the end of the season, QB Luke Rothe and the offense started figuring things out. Nobody can be sure, but we have reason to believe the breakthrough on offense coincides with simplifying the play calling to the renowned note-card-in-the-pants system. Whatever the cause, they gave Greenville all they could handle, were competitive against Northwestern, and won their final two conference games. In their first 5 conference games, they averaged 10.6 points a game (I am not counting the game against the last ranked team in D3 football coming in at a solid 244…drum roll please…Maranatha Baptist. They are a disgrace to college football everywhere. Nay, a disgrace to all levels of football both at home and abroad. Seriously, I say 7.5 is the over/under on victories in their entire history). In their final four conference games, the Knights averaged 34.0 points a game. See the difference? In fact, they were playing so well at the end of the season that I had the balls to pick them third in my way to early power rankings at the end of last season (I will never visit that bar again, and picked them to finish 6^th this year).

This year, there are a lot of question marks again. I’ll do my best to sift through some of the key issues surrounding this year’s version of the Martin Luther Knights.

Big Losses

The entire defense. I’m almost positive this is legitimate. At first glance you think, hey even though they lost like 8 seniors on defense, at least they have UMAC Central outstanding S Galen Holzhueter and DE Derek Loewen to provide leadership and experience. Wrong. Holzhueter will apparently be saving his last season of eligibility for 2014, and Loewen is not to be found on the 2013 roster. A myriad of questions come to mind. Did Loewen change his name and number? Did he transfer? Does he have a medical condition? Did he get kicked out of school for violating Martin Luther King’s code of civility? Was Holzhueter thinking the Knights will win the UMAC championship in 2014 and wants to be an integral part? I have no answers. The defense that ranked 67^th nationally last year will have some major holes to fill—and by holes I mean the entire defense.

The only loss of concern on the offense is leading WR Scott Henrich.

Key Returners

QB Luke Rothe returns to lead the offense. He is a dual-threat QB, but is much more adept at running the football. He was the second leading rusher on the team with 581 yards and 3 touchdowns on the season. He threw 11 touchdowns to 11 interceptions last year, for a mediocre 1:1 ratio. Hopefully, with an offseason dedicated to working on his technique, Rothe will be a much more accomplished passer in year two. In addition, last season’s leading rusher, RB Matt Olson returns. He will also benefit from having a solidified position, although I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they played him and Rothe both ways a little bit. The offensive line remains mostly intact from a season ago, and the Knights will once again mix and match to find the other wingbacks and offensive skill players.

Keys to 2013

1. Will the Martin Luther Knights be able to mash together a defense in time to play the better teams in the conference? The Knights play that 244th ranked squad and MacMurray to start the season before they play Northwestern and Greenville in consecutive weeks. They have two games to figure it out because Northwestern, while not likely to be lethal on offense like last year, should have a solid rushing attack and Greenville should be a monster this year.

2. Will QB Luke Rothe take the next steps and become a proficient passer? In my opinion, he has the tools to be a great player. Athletically, he can do it all, but he needs to refine his technique big time. Footwork, mechanics, the works. Last year, he was just winging it, and using his athleticism to his greatest advantage. If he can really learn the playbook, know opposing defenses, and work on the passing game, he could really become a big time player this year. Maybe even offensive player of the year...

3. Turnovers killed the Knights last year, and it started with the QB's. Anyone who has watched Martin Luther play knows they option a lot and there are tricky angles when handing the ball off, but they have got to hold onto the football better. RB Matt Olson fumbled 10 times last year. As a team, they lost 21 fumbles. That's absurd. They have to clean that aspect of their game up.

Prediction

The Knights ended the 2012 season playing very well, and looked poised to take a jump in 2013. The offense should be potent with playmakers at QB and RB, however, the upheaval on defense leaves major question marks. It will be very interesting to see how creative Martin Luther coaches get with the depth chart considering the lack of everything on defense. After they play the weenie boppers from Maranatha, they face a motivated, albeit young, MacMurray squad. This will be a good litmus test for both teams, and will tell us if we have overhyped QB Luke Rothe or not. Realistically, this team should be better than last year and will be competitive against most teams. In fact, everyone in the UMAC should take notice if they have to make a trip to New Ulm. Martin Luther plays differently at home than on the road, and the Northwestern and Morris games are definitely winnable this year. If the defense can be solid, and the offense produces like it did at the end of last year this team could really sneak up on people. However, I just don't see that happening quickly enough to crack the top four.  UMAC Central has spoken: We have the Knights finishing with a 5-4 record, good enough for a fifth place finish. 

Westminster Season Preview

Westminster came into the 2012 season expecting big things. After an eight-win season in 2011, the Blue Jays were picked to finish third in the conference by the coaches of the UMAC (shows how much they know… although we also picked them to finish third so I guess that shows how much we know as well). They returned the bulk of their starters from the previous season and brought in a new, highly-touted starting quarterback who was supposed to take the team to the next level. All indications were that the Jays would be a force to be reckoned with in the UMAC. Then the season came and that all went down the crapper. Westminster did not simply lose a few tough games last season, they fell off the face of the earth, dropping to a 2-6 conference record and finishing in 7^th place. What happened? How did a team that was supposed to compete for a conference championship fall apart so quickly? I am not sure if anyone has the complete answer to that, but I will do my best to speculate as to the cause of Westminster’s 2012 collapse.

I think we have to begin our breakdown of what went wrong in 2012 with the quarterback position. All of us at UMAC Central were baffled when we learned that Scott Rodgers, who as a sophomore in 2011 led the Jays to 8 wins playing very well along the way, had been moved to receiver. We all assumed this new quarterback Joe Plassmeyer must be something special to come in and instantly take the job from the incumbent starter who had performed well the year before as a sophomore. Now hear me out, I do not think that Plassmeyer played poorly last season nor is he to blame for their terrible season. He had a pretty dang good statistical year in fact - 3000 yards passing, 27 TDs to 13 INTs, 59.5% completion percentage. I will even go so far as to say that Plassmeyer is probably a far better quarterback than Rodgers. However, I think the move significantly hurt Westminster last season. They took arguably their most dynamic playmaker and barely utilized him at all. Rodgers was the team’s fourth-leading receiver in 2012. Are you telling me that a team with a 2-6 record in the UMAC was so offensively loaded that they could not get this kid the ball? Clear mismanagement of talent by the coaching staff (coincidentally, Rodgers is not on the 2013 roster after graduating a year early). Secondly, what happened to the running game? Yes, Zain Gower was a big loss but Westminster went from averaging 141.4 rush yards per game in 2011 to 24.3 in 2012. What??? For you Phy Ed majors out there that is almost 120 fewer yards per game. The only way that happens is when the coaching staff gives up on the run. Finally, the defense was significantly worse. In 2011, the Jays defense gave up 276 yards per game and 17.2 points per game. In 2012 they gave up 359 ypg and 24.4 ppg. Basically, in 2011 they controlled the line of scrimmage and in 2012 they lost interest in doing that. And it showed in the results.

Big Losses

While the Blue Jays return the majority of their starters from last season, they did lose some key players including the likes of 1^st Team WR James Gladstone (1246 receiving yards and 14 TDs), 2^nd Team OL Derrick Jensen, 1^st team DL Rodney Lyles (52.5 tackles, 17.5 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks), and LB Gus Lyles (54.5 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks). The Blue Jays are sure to feel the loss of their best offensive player and two best defensive players.

Key Returners

The good news for Westminster is that they do return 8 starters on each side of the ball (at least they say they do – my calculations have fewer than that, but whatever).  Most importantly, Joe Plassmeyer returns for his junior season and second season as a starter in this offense. Tight end Mac Findeiss returns to the lineup for his third season as a starter after racking up 454 receiving yards last season. The defensive side of the ball will be anchored by Senior DB Jeremy Hampton (1^st Team All Conference 2012, 4 INTs, 6 break ups) and Junior DE Kyle Bryant (apparently a Preseason All-American although I am not sure what that is based on after recording a grand total of 9.5 tackles in 2012). The Blue Jays have also brought in a large recruiting class and expect some big contributions from newcomers.

Key to 2013

1. The Blue Jay’s success in 2013 will hinge on 3 key factors:  Continued development of Joe Plassmeyer – Plassmeyer put up some good stats in his sophomore season, but it is one thing to rack up 3,00 yards and 27 TDs while throwing 52 times a game. It’s another thing to lead a balanced, efficient offensive attack week in and week out even against the good teams. Joe needs to take the next step this season if his team is going to compete.
2. Re-establishment of the run – Averaging 24 rushing ypg is pathetic. Absolutely pathetic. The Westminster coaches should be embarrassed about what happened last season. Hopefully they learned from last season’s debacle and come into 2013 with a renewed commitment to controlling the line of scrimmage and having a balanced attack. If not, expect the same results this season – amazing passing stats for Plassmeyer and 2 wins for the team.
3. Effective integration of newcomers – The Blue Jays brought in a lot of new players for the 2013 season which is always good news for the program. What remains to be seen, however, is how quickly everyone can get on the same page. Will this team have strong chemistry right from the get-go and come out of the gates flying or will it take them until midway through the season to be clicking on all cylinders? The answer to that question may very well determine their success in 2013.

Prediction

The good news for Westminster is that they will be better in 2013. How could they be worse? This team has talent. In fact, in terms of pure talent they are probably top 3 in the conference. However, having talent and having well-coached, good football players are two entirely different things. Because of their talent, the Blue Jays have a chance to compete with any team in this conference. Because of their inconsistency and poor coaching, they have a chance to lose to lose to anyone (22-24 to MacMurray last season for example). This season, Plassmeyer will be even better and will put up great numbers again. Their team will be competitive week in and week out and may even pull off an upset of a team that finishes higher than them. However, I don’t have confidence in their ability to re-establish a running game and they simply have far too many unknowns for me to see them as any more than an average squad. The Blue Jays will finish the season in sixth place with a 4-5 conference record. 

Northwestern Season Preview

Northwestern College will never again be champions of the UMAC. Of course, that is primarily because Northwestern College no longer exists. Northwestern has upgraded to university status and is now officially known as the University of Northwestern – St. Paul. I am not sure if that is supposed to mean that it is the official university of the northwestern quadrant of Saint Paul or if it is the Saint Paul campus of the University of Northwestern system. All name confusion aside, the Eagles put together a great campaign in 2012 and have once again established themselves as a dominant force in the UMAC. Although they finished last season on a disappointing note – losing to Greenville College in back to back games which included a home loss preventing the Eagles from playing in the DIII national playoffs for the first time in school history followed by an overtime loss on a missed extra point at Greenville in the NCCAA Victory Bowl – NWC still had a season they can be proud of in 2012. They peeled off eight wins in a row at one point rolling through all UMAC competition and looking like the best team in the conference for the majority of the season. After their Week 6 road victory over St. Scholastica by one point, Northwestern controlled their own destiny and appeared set to coast to a UMAC title. However, those pesky Greenville Tigers who had lost to Scholastica by a score of 45-3 earlier in the year, managed to snake bite the Eagles again at the end of the season. In their last 4 matchups with the Tigers, the Eagles are now 0-4 with losses of 27-28, 16-27, 23-27, and 20-26. Although the Eagles easily dismantled most UMAC competition and looked far better in doing so than did either Scholastica or Greenville, who often struggled against lesser opponents, they were once again unable to beat the Panthers. I don’t know if it is a case of the Panthers being a team that plays its best football at the end of the year when the Eagles are starting to tail off, or if it is simply that the Panthers match up well against the Eagles. Whatever the reason, the Eagles have yet to show that they can beat the top team from the South and until they do so they will continue to fall short of their ultimate goal.

Big Losses

Northwestern has lost as much to graduation as any team in the conference moving into 2013. Key losses include 3-year starting QB Josh Balzer (who we had rated as the best overall QB in the UMAC last season), top receiver Brian Lecheler, 1^st Team All-Conference Tight End Matt Dammann, and D-End and Lineman of the Year Josh Swore. By our count, the Eagles are losing 12 starters to graduation – and many of those at key positions.

Key Returners

Although the Eagles are losing a number of key members from their 2012 roster, they are not without a sizable group of talented returners. Both of last season’s leading rushers, Josh Sinnen and Chris Simon-Wallace, who ran for 764 and 682 yards, respectively, return in 2013 expecting to receive even more touches.  Defensive End Nathan Van Zee is coming off a huge sophomore season in which he racked up 64 tackles and 4.5 sacks. DB Cody Kielsa also returns for his senior season and, according to UNW’s athletic website, was one of four Eagles named to USA Football’s Preseason All-American list. (Although, after clicking on the link provided in the article, which directed me to this page - http://www.usafbn.com/d3fb.htm - I am not so sure that is an impressive honor. Seriously, who made that website, a fourth-grader?) Overall, UNW is a good program which tends to reload rather than rebuild.

Key to 2013

The biggest factor in determining how far the Eagles go this season will be the play of their new starting quarterback. Josh Balzer was especially efficient in leading the offense last season, throwing 23 touchdowns compared to only 8 interceptions. Compare that to his first year as the starting signal caller in 2010 in which he threw 9 touchdowns and 20 interceptions and you get an idea as to the type of drop-off we could see at that position in 2013. The Eagles have 2 QBs returning to their roster who have thrown a pass in their career: Junior Jacob Fletcher, who is the front-runner to win the job, comes in with 23 career passing attempts and Sophomore Grant Schoen comes in with 4. Expect opponents to stack the box in an attempt to shut down the run game and force the Eagle’s QB to beat them. If Fletcher can put together a solid year, the Eagles will be in the hunt for a conference championship. If there are some growing pains, and I suspect there will be, expect to see an increase in turnovers and a decrease in wins in 2013.

Prediction

The last time the Eagles had a rookie starter at QB was 2010, a season in which they went 1-8. I am not suggesting they will have a season as horrendous as that, however, it is difficult for me to see the Eagles replicating last season’s success with a rookie under center. There is no doubt in my mind UNW will continue to be one of the most effective rushing teams in the league. They have two of the best RBs in the conference paired with what always seems to be a strong offensive line.  I also expect their defense to once again be a strong unit that suffocates the running game. In games against the bottom half of the conference, those two things will be more than enough to dominate time of possession, control the ball, and win games. However, the better teams of the conference will force the Eagles to throw the football. Will the Eagles’ rookie QB be able to step up to the challenge and win big games against CSS and Greenville in weeks 6 and 7? If you asked me, I would probably say no. Could I see the Eagles putting it all together and going 8-1 in conference? Sure. But I could also see them going 4-5. Most likely, I see them as a 6 to 7 conference win team. The Eagles will take a step backward from last season, but not enough of a step back to be surpassed by the bottom teams of the conference. I predict they will once again handle the lower third of the conference – teams they beat by 4+ touchdowns last year will not be a problem this season. However, to be an elite team they will have to beat Greenville and Scholastica – teams which they are a combined 1-5 against over the past 3 seasons. If they have struggled against those teams in the past, there is no reason for me to think they will be more effective this year with a rookie QB. Put UNW down for a 6-3 conference record and a third place finish.