Week 9 Predictions- Jay's Picks

Jay’s Picks (5 of 5 Week 8, 31 of 38 on the Season)

Luck was on my side last week. I even guessed a score correctly. This is by far the most exciting week of UMAC football. Northwestern has a share of the UMAC championship, but Greenville and St. Scholastica are still holding on with a death grip. Ok, St. Scholastica is slipping into the abyss a little bit but all can be forgotten if everything falls into place for them. The question of the hour is who will be representing the UMAC in the playoffs. Tommy will have to post his picks after the games are done if he wants to catch me in the standings. Have a great weekend everyone and enjoy UMAC championship weekend.

MacMurray @ Eureka- This game will be a tight one. QB Sam Durley will want to forget last week’s debacle that included 3 interceptions. In games against legitimate competition, St. Scholastica and Northwestern, Durley has thrown for only 226 yards a game, 0 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions with a less than stellar completion percentage. In those two games, that’s the equivalent of a 49.17 NFL passer QB rating. I don’t know if that will cast a shadow on the 736 yard record to NFL scouts or not, but in light of all that Durley might want to end his college football career on a slightly higher note. MacMurray has been competitive all season and I see that trend continuing this Saturday, but Eureka has to be feeling pretty good after nearly beating Northwestern and Durley will be out to prove he is better than the three interception game last week.Eureka 31 MacMurray 23

Crown @ Martin Luther- I have been looking forward to this game ever since Martin Luther started to figure out their offense. Both teams are extremely young. Crown has a bevy of young guys playing everywhere and Martin Luther’s two best players QB Luke Rothe and RB/WR Matt Olson are both freshman. Youth that has a lot of talent also tends to make a lot of mistakes that don’t occur on experienced football teams. Rothe’s 5 interceptions last week for example. Looking forward to next year, Northwestern has to replace some very integral players including QB Josh Balzer, WR Brian Lecheler, DE Josh Swore, DB Mitch Swanson, LB’s Kendall Sommerlot and Joey Bauman, and the list goes on and on. The Fighting Durley’s lose well…Durley. Morris loses both starting QB’s. St. Scholastica loses a lot of senior experience for the second year in a row. Greenville should be loaded again, but the rest of the UMAC is fairly uncertain. This game could go a long way in showing who the players will be for next year. Bold prediction way too far in advance…Knights will finish in top 3 of conference next year AND Crown will find a kicker.  Martin Luther 24 Crown 20

St Scholastica @ Minnesota Morris- Before the Northwestern game, most people would have said this would be a 20-30 point blowout by St. Scholastica. Not so fast my friends. Ok, a couple of weeks ago you could have counted me in as the torch bearer for St. Scholastica blowing out Morris. Oh how the tides have turned. Morris has always been confident, even when sometimes they don’t really have any reason to be. St. Scholastica is like a little boy who just saw dad, their hero, get toasted in one-on-one basketball. Crushed, demoralized, and probably not bragging about dad's basketball skills anymore. The Saints look like they are just going through the motions right now. They are more talented than Morris, but Morris is good enough to beat St. Scholastica if the Saints decide to give the same type of effort that they did against Presentation. Morris has played the “It’s Jay and Tommy/ the World against us” card all season and will be very motivated to get a signature win that they have been lacking to this point. I keep repeating this, but St. Scholastica still has an opportunity to claim a share of the conference championship as well as represent the UMAC in the NCAA playoffs. If that’s not motivation enough, the Saints deserve to lose. St. Scholastica 34 Morris 27

GAME OF THE WEEK

Greenville @ Northwestern- Nobody’s surprised with this game of the week. This is as close to a conference championship game as you will see in the UMAC. If Greenville wins, they will still need help from Morris to get into the playoffs but it has all the signs and feel of a big time game. Here’s a couple reasons why: 1) The last two times they have played each other have been crazy games decided by a touchdown or less 2) Last season Northwestern dominated until basically the fourth quarter and then fell apart as Greenville pulled of the comeback 3) QB Josh Balzer is the best QB in the UMAC(sorry Durley, but see my post above) and QB Brendan Chambers is the most dynamic QB in the UMAC 4) RB’s Manny Gamble and NWC’s RB’s Josh Sinnen and Chris Simon-Wallace all average 6.3 yards a carry or more. I could keep going but you get the point. Here are some matchups to keep an eye on:

1. Greenville’s #1 rushing attack vs. Northwestern #2 rush defense
2. QB Josh Balzer vs. Greenville secondary
3. NWC’s OLB’s and SS vs. QB Brendan Chambers and RB Manny Gamble

Keys to the game:

Northwestern:

1. The secondary is going to have to be able to tackle in space because if they don’t it could be a long day.
2. Hit QB Brendan Chambers. It doesn’t matter if he has the ball or if he doesn’t. Make him pitch the ball.
3. Consistency on offense. It might seem like a little bit of a track meet until your defense figures things out, but don’t panic. This offense has been very good all year. Don’t try to be who you aren’t.

Greenville:

1. Do not turn the ball over! I repeat…do not turn the ball over! It killed you against St. Scholastica.
2. Stop the run and stop big plays in the passing game. Force QB Josh Balzer to consistently convert through the passing game.
3. Force turnovers. Northwestern hasn’t turned the ball over much this year, but if Greenville wants to beat the Eagles they need to force the issue.

Like I mentioned above, this game could get into a little bit of a track meet offensively. Nobody has really stopped Greenville from running the football; even St. Scholastica didn’t stop them. Greenville’s achilles heel has been turning the ball over. Even if it does turn into a shootout, Northwestern has the firepower to go toe-to-toe with Greenville. This game will be filled with a lot of emotion and intensity that the UMAC often doesn’t have late in the season. This type of game is so rare late in the season that I’m predicting something even more strange— a last minute field goal will decide the game. Northwestern 38 Greenville 35