Last week was easy for predictions. This week... not so much. Several of the games should be close and could go either way. Some teams will be playing for pride while others will just be trying to wrap things up so they can go hibernate for the winter. But two teams are playing for bigger reasons. The Greenville Panthers and the St. Scholastica Saints face off in the biggest game of the year to determine who will represent the UMAC in the NCAA playoffs. Before you skip all the way to the bottom to see who will win... I mean who I picked... read the rest of my predictions which are based on my season's worth of observations and compiled into a simple paragraph for each game. I know it sounds tough to do that, but I am gifted.
Iowa Wesleyan @ Northwestern- The Tigers wrap up their first UMAC season against the Eagles, whom they face for the first time in history. Northwestern is trying to finish their season above .500 for the third consecutive year after finishing 1-8 three years ago. Against the other eight teams in the UMAC, both teams have scored 28 touchdowns but Iowa Wesleyan has scored more points because their kicker has special powers which enable him to actually make his field goals and extra points. Offensive yardage against UMAC opponents is nearly identical for each team at 369.25 for Northwestern and 364.33 for Iowa Wesleyan per game. So I believe this game is going to be decided by how well Northwestern's defense plays in this game. Last week the Eagles allowed 199 yards of rushing to MacMurray, a team not known for their running prowess. If the Eagles play like last week, they could have a sour end to their season. Northwestern 34 Iowa Wesleyan 21
MacMurray @ Minnesota-Morris- Here it is MacMurray, your last chance to prevent yourselves from being a no-win team. I know you guys are better than 0 wins so go out and prove it. Cougars, with as much potential as you had, you still found your way to win just 2 games? At least each quarterback can claim a win for himself I guess. I haven't used this label in a few weeks but I think this game qualifies for the "Game of the Weak" as there are a combined 2 wins between the teams. While you may think the Cougars should win this game because MacMurray has 0 wins, don't just to conclusions too fast. The Highlanders defense has actually allowed the fewest passing yards per game to opposing teams this season. While that may be due to them allowing the second most rushing yards per game, it could play a factor against the Cougars who live and die by the passing game. With how up and down Minnesota-Morris is, either team could win this game. Minnesota-Morris 37 MacMurray 31
Crown @ Eureka- I am very interested to see the final outcome of this game. This Crown team has been building momentum the last four weeks and has averaged 346.75 rushing yards per game between several different running backs. Eureka lost their chance at postseason play two weeks ago and last week they did not play like the dominant team we've seen all season. The biggest factor may be that this game is hosted by the Red Devils and Crown will have a long bus ride to make it there. Eureka QB Blake Robles has been arguably the most efficient quarterback in the UMAC this season, throwing for 261.3 yards per game and totalling 21 touchdowns with just 6 interceptions on the season. If Crown wants to win this game, they will need to put pressure on Robles, something they have been fairly successful at this season averaging nearly 3 sacks per game. While this game could come down to the wire, I don't think Eureka will let their season end on a sour note. Eureka 28 Crown 17Game of the Week
St. Scholastica @ Greenville- Before the season even began, I predicted that this game would decide the conference championship. Here we are, almost ten weeks later and the winner of this game will be going on to the NCAA playoffs. But before you call me a genius, let me write my prediction on this game and really blow your mind. I have spent a lot of time thinking about who will win this matchup so forgive me if I have a lot to say about it. This game features the leagues most explosive offense, in Greenville, against the conference's most stifling defense (that's St. Scholastica if you didn't catch on). The Panthers average 522 yards of offense per game, with over 2/3rds of it coming on the ground. Greenville has two rushers averaging over 100 yards per game in RB Jacob Stull and QB Brendan Chambers who also combine for 25 rushing touchdowns. And you can't forget about RB Zibeon Washington who averages 69 yards on the ground per game and broke off an 89 yard score last weekend. On the other sideline, the Saints have their own one-two punch in RBs Jake Jensen and Chris Gassert who have combined for 200 yards per game and 17 total rushing touchdowns. Needless to say, this game will be very run oriented. With both quarterbacks fairly even in passing abilities, St. Scholastica holds a slight edge in the receiving game with senior WR Cory Gebhard who is third in the UMAC in receiving yards (74.7 per game) and touchdowns (8). Overall on offense, I give Greenville the advantage due to their quarterback, Brendan Chambers who is very athletic and very smart with the ball in his hands, whether in running the option or when passing.
As far as the defenses are concerned, both teams are very good against the run. The Saints have given up 111.4 yards per game and just 4 touchdowns to opposing rushers while Greenville has given up 115 yards per game but 12 touchdowns on the ground. Greenville's passing defense is the weaker of the two, giving up almost 70 yards per game more than the Saints. But don't get me wrong, both teams have very good athletes on defense, the Saints strength is their defensive backs while Greenville is just well rounded overall. The Saints have the advantage on defense as they give up 8 fewer points per game than the Panthers do. So now its time for my keys to the game before I give you my prediction.
St. Scholastica
1. Pressure, pressure, pressure. Brendan Chambers does not get hit much when he drops back to pass, partly because of his offensive line and partly because of his shiftiness. He has only been sacked 3 times this season. Maybe if you get some pressure on him, he will make mistakes.
2. Contain, contain, contain. The Panthers love their option. If you can keep the pitchman and Chambers bottled up, they have no where to go. But that's much harder than it sounds.
3. Plug the middle on third and short. They love to hand off to big man RB Zibeon Washington in short yardage. They also are 1st in the nation in total first downs and 11th in 3rd down conversion percentage. Coincidence? I think not.
Greenville
1. Fewer turnovers than the Saints. They force a lot of turnovers and are very good with the ball when they have it. Wrap the ball up when running through traffic and don't let their defensive backs pick you off. They have 5 interceptions returned for touchdowns this year.
2. Keep their runs short. Jake Jensen has been breaking off long runs the past few weeks, without the 20+ yard runs, his average drops to below 4 yards per carry.
3. Don't let the receivers get behind you. It may seem like common sense but if you are too focused on the run, it is very easy to let a receiver sneak behind you for a long play. Harper is not a great passer but he can hit an open guy down the field.
Its very close, especially considering St. Scholastica has a 10+ hour bus ride before the game. I predict the Saints take an early lead, but Greenville fights back to the very end. But will it be enough?
St. Scholastica 38 Greenville 35
No comments:
Post a Comment