Week 8 Predictions: Tommy's Picks

Tommy's Picks (5 of 5 Week 7,  25 of 33 on the season) As has been well documented by now, I had a pretty amazing week last week. The only thing more impressive than my prognostication abilities is my humility and therefore I will speak no more about my exploits. I will simply get right down to business. I must make a confession, however. I did take a peak at Jay's predictions before making mine and since I still have some ground to make up, I may have been tempted to take a shot on an underdog.

Presentation @ St. Scholastica - Jay already took all of the Saints vs. Saints jokes - I mean he really rode that horse into the ground - so I am forced to be a little more creative in my analysis. I have dubbed this one "Saints vs. Aints". See what I did there? I used rhyming to poke fun at one team. I don't really see much point in offering any sort of actual analysis on this one as St. Scholastica is clearly light years ahead of Presentation. Instead, I will pose the rhetorical question, What exactly is Presentation's plan for their athletic program moving forward? As I am sure everyone knows by now, the Aints... I mean Saints are no longer with us in the UMAC. They have moved on to bigger and better things. They are now an Independent School freeing them up from having to waste their time with the lowly schools of the UMAC and putting them alongside other elite programs including Notre Dame, BYU, and Macalester. I am not entirely sure why Presentation is no longer with us. I have heard rumors that they were kicked out and others that they left by their own accord. I do not want to speculate as we hold ourselves to the highest standard of reporting excellence here at UMAC Central - maybe UMAC commissioner Corey Borchardt could answer that one for us. Someone tweet at Corey and see what he has to say. Regardless, I can't imagine that being removed from a conference is going to bode well for the Aints - dog gone it, I keep doing it - Saints. If I were a high school recruit I do not believe that I would be enticed by the Independent Presentation College Saints. But, then again, what do I know? Anyway, back to the game. Scholastica wins big at home. St. Scholastica 38 Presentation 7
 
Greenville at Westminster - Did Plassmeyer really throw 77 times last week? Is that an accurate stat or is Jay trying to pull a fast one on us? I guess when you throw 77 times it doesn't make it as bad when you throw 4 interceptions. I mean, I don't think I could do anything 77 times without making four mistakes. I bet you have found four mistakes in this post already. Greenville should not have any trouble with this team. They are significantly better than Westminster and should compile about 600 rushing yards against that defense. Not so fast my friend! Greenville is notorious for playing down to competition. Last week they took their foot of the throttle and almost blew a huge lead to Eureka. They barely snuck out with a win over MacMurray earlier this season. Part of me thinks that Greenville comes out flat and lays an egg in this one. A bigger part of me thinks that Westminster is lousy and Greenville will learn from last week's second half. Greenville 45 Westminster 20

Northwestern @ Eureka - I don't really know why Jay didn't make this our game of the week. Either he is really down at Eureka or really high on MacMurray. I can't blame him for being down on Eureka, though, as they have continued to fall just barely short game after game. In fact, ever since their SID tweeted at us about how focused on winning the Red Devils are they are a combined 0-1. (That's a joke. We appreciate all angry tweets from loyal but biased fans.) If there is one team that is built to beat Northwestern it might be Eureka. I have been saying all season that you have to pass on the Eagles and if there is one thing I know for sure it is that the Fighting Durleys will come out passing. The key to this game will be two-fold 1) Can Eureka force NWC to get into a four-man front to get pressure on Durely? Northwestern will want to come out in their base 3-4. If they can get pressure with 3 and drop 8 into coverage the Red Devils do not have a prayer of winning. (Ironic, Devils praying.) If Eureka can force Northwestern into their 4-4 defense and still give Durley a little bit of time they just might have a shot 2) Eureka has to stop the Eagle's offense. Bottom line, this is not going to happen. Eureka's best bet is to force a few turnovers and not give up big plays to Brian Lecheler. Northwestern will win this game because they are better on both sides of the ball. They will run the ball at will and their defense will obliterate Eureka's offensive line. I'm predicting at least 7 sacks. Northwestern 41 Eureka 17

Minnesota Morris @ Crown - Crown started out the season on a high and has slowly come back to reality after getting blown out back to back weeks by the two best teams in the conference. Morris started out a little shaky but has hit their stride as of late. While conventional wisdom would say to pick the Cougars, I am going to go with Crown in this one. Hopefully, their confidence has not been too shaken after getting rocked the last two weeks. I think UMM comes into this one a little over confident and Crown puts it all together for a big win at home. Give me Wes Safford and Amos Schmidt to each have the game of their career. (Always happy to provide Cougar Nation with a bit of bulletin board material.) Crown 31 Minnesota Morris 28
 
GAME OF THE WEEK

Martin Luther @ MacMurray - Jay thinks this will be a good matchup. I do not. I think Martin Luther, despite their record is actually a middle of the road team in the conference. I like them to get hot at the end of the year. Luke Rothe is a good athlete and the one thing that their offense does is give you a lot of crazy looks. Doesn't work so well against teams that are prepared for it. But, if there is one team in the conference that I can see getting very, very confused by MLC's crazy formations it is the Highlanders. The Knights are feeling good after putting up some points in the second half against NWC last week, albeit against what I would assume was mostly second-teamers. Still, Martin Luther keeps getting better week after week and I actually do like what their coaching staff is doing with those kids. Luke Rothe does it all on offense and Martin Luther's defense shuts down the Highlanders. I will actually have to go find a logo for Martin Luther to pick them for the first time this year. Martin Luther 24 MacMurray 14

Week 8 Predictions- Jay's Picks

Jay’s Picks (4 of 5 Week 7, 26 of 33 on the Season

Only two full weeks of UMAC football left this season. It sure has gone by quickly. Tommy is applying for Adam Schefter’s job at ESPN after last week desperation pick of MacMurray, but I still have a slight lead going into week 8. There are a lot of intruiging games this weekend, and the race to see who gets to get smashed by St. Thomas in the playoffs is alive and well...for now.

Presentation @ St. Scholastica- I’m calling this the “Battle of the Saints”, but it’s really like the battle of one group of Saints castrating the other group of Saints. St. Scholastica nuns…cover your eyes for this one. The only team that the soon to be castrated Saints have won against is the Haskell Indian Nations. Huh? Is this the collection of the finest Native American football players the country has to offer? Isn’t Manti Te’o, LB from Notre Dame, native Somoan? Honestly, why isn’t he playing for the Indian Nations? Someone tell me what nations are involved here. Indian Nations or not, this game will most definitely not be very Saint-like.

St. Scholastica 47 Presentation 14

Greenville @ Westminster- Westminster’s QB Joe Plassmeyer has thrown 13 interceptions in conference play. Last Saturday against MacMurray, he threw it 77 times, completed 45, and was picked off 4 times. 77 times? That about 30 short of what Greenville’s Brendan Chambers has thrown on the year. It’s like they think that Plassmeyer is Drew Brees and the Blue Jays are the New Orleans Saints. Well, how’d that work for you last week? Greenville won’t be able to stop the passing game, but it won’t matter if Westminster turns the ball over as much as they did. Statistically, it looks like it should be a close game because Westminster is actually pretty solid against the run, but I think Westminster will turn the ball over too much and Greenville wins relatively easily. Greenville 42 Westminster 27

Northwestern @ Eureka-  At the beginning of the season, this would have been an instant game of the week, but Northwestern is playing a dominant brand of football and Eureka has struggled against good teams. Two years ago, Eureka handed the Eagles a 40-14 loss and the Eagles returned the favor last year with a 53-14 shellacking of their own. If I had to put money on which of the two would be a repeat, I’m going with last year. However, I would really like to see one team attack the Eagles’ defense where it is weakest. Northwestern plays a pretty conservative defense that tries to eliminate big plays and does not blitz very often. The weak point of the defense is the passing game in the middle of the field in between the LB’s and the S’s and seam routes along the hashes. If you can get enough time to run the routes, there should be openings for QB Sam Durley to throw the football. That’s a very big IF. Northwestern counts on DE’s Josh Swore and Nathan Van Zee to get to the passer and they are very good at it. If Eureka stands a chance in this game, they are going to have to find a way to keep Durley upright; who by the way has been sacked 32 times. Northwestern 38 Eureka 17

Minnesota Morris @ Crown­- Things are clicking right now for the Cougars albeit against the bottom half of the conference. WR Brendon Foss went off last week, and there is the potential that he could have another big game. The biggest problem for Crown’s defense the last couple of games has been tackling. Morris is a big football team and it won’t get any easier to tackle these kids. RB Amos Schmidt should find room to run this weekend because Morris has the third worst run defense in the conference, but QB Wes Safford is going to have to start making some big plays when teams stack up against the run. Crown has been taking baby steps all season and in the beginning of the season it was impressive the way they played with a lot of toughness. As the season wears on, it’s starting to look like this team might have run out of gas.   Minnesota Morris 27 Crown 14

GAME OF THE WEEK

Martin Luther @ MacMurray- Yep, this is the game of the week because we think it will be the most competetive game of the week.  This is the battle for last place in the conference, and I don’t think this should be taken lightly. These two teams will be fighting for their dignity and…ahh it’s a struggle to try and build this one up. Thankfully, we have Northwestern and Greenville to look forward to next week.  This game will tell us a lot about what direction both teams are headed. MacMurray snatched its first win of the season last week. Martin Luther has yet to win a conference game, but the offense is sneaky good now that QB Luke Rothe has taken the reigns and the defense has played well at times. These teams have been competetive in some games and blown out, and I mean blown out, by some of the top teams in the conference. On that note, I think it’s just time to pick a winner. Martin Luther 30 MacMurray 27

The Week that Was: Week 7

I have officially switched the name of my mid-week soap box to The Week that Was. I feel like it went over well last week and now I can really open up my horizons. Before, I was limited to factual statements about what we learned. Now I can simply rant about whatever strikes my fancy - which was really the goal of this article to begin with. Week 7 lacked some of the big-time matchups we had seen in prior weeks, but it still provided me with plenty of material for my weekly post.

1. MacMurray won a game! It has been a long time coming for the boys in blue but a well-deserved congratulations to the Highlanders on their first victory of the season. It has been said that when you have to wait for something for a long time you appreciate it that much more when you finally do get it. I can guarantee you that MacMurray enjoyed their win on Saturday more than any other team in the conference has enjoyed any win this year. Maybe a victory on homecoming is exactly what this program needed to get back on track. Sometimes all it takes is one victory and the confidence to know that you, in fact, can win a game to get the ball rolling and start building some momentum. In fact, if you look at the class of the conference, Northwestern won only 1 game in 2010 and St. Scholastica only won 1 game in 2008. Turning a program around is certainly possible. Now let's not get carried away. Momentum can only carry you so far, and I do not expect MacMurray to be competing for a conference title anytime soon. But I am happy to see them win a game and hope they can continue to improve.

2. Greenville's offense is as explosive as ever -  35 points in the first half made it appear as though the Panthers would roll to an easy victory at home. However, they slowed considerably in the second half only putting up 10 points and sneaking out with a 7 point victory in a game that should not have even been close. A 45 point performance is always impressive though, even if all 45 came in one half. Greenville has what I would consider to be the most dynamic offense in the conference. While they may not be as balanced as Northwestern, I still love what the Panthers do. Their triple option threat is about as crisp and quick-hitting as any DIII team in the country. In a sense, what they do is so very simple. And yet that is what makes it so beautiful. Greenville is going to run the ball 80% of the game and they are going to do it out of maybe three different formations. But Chambers can read the defense and knows when to keep it and when to pitch it and good luck stopping them. Fortunately for opponents, with that defense, you may only need to stop the Panthers three times a game to win.

3. Morris has solidified itself as the 4th best team in the conference - If you would have told me at the beginning of the year that the Cougars would finish the season with a 6-4 record and in 4th place I would have said that would be a successful season for them. I would expect that their coaches would have said the same thing. The truth is that they are not ready to beat any of the top three programs. They aren't even in the same universe as Northwestern. But, they have pulled off some big wins so far. Match-ups with Martin Luther, Westminster, and Eureka were all games that could have gone either way and the Cougars found a way to win all three - proving that two quarterbacks really are better than one. That's a saying, right?

4. Can someone explain to me why Scott Rodgers is not Westminster's quaterback? Who am I to question the coaching staff? But really, what is going on down there? I know I do not watch these players in practice everyday but I do know that last year with Rodgers at the helm the Blue Jays went 8-2 and this year with Joe Plassmeyer they can barely walk and chew gum at the same time. It seemed odd to me that Plassmeyer walked in the door and instantly took over the starting spot. Now Rodgers is not even a quarterback? Did the coaches instantly move him so as to avoid any sort of controversy when this big new star came in? Yes, I understand that Rodgers had Carl Givens to throw to last season and Westminster is weaker at other spots as well. Certainly all of the blame for their poor performance does not fall on the QB, but I can tell you something that Rodgers did not do last year. He did not turn the ball over. Plassmeyer had 4 interceptions and 2 fumbles last week - against MacMurray, not Scholastica or Northwestern. That is not attributed to his lack of weapons. That much falls on him. My issue is more with the coaching staff than Plassmeyer or Rodgers or any of the players. I simply do not understand how with a lot of the same players this team has fallen so monumentally short of expectations. My guess is that the switch at quarterback is just the beginning of a long list of poor decisions made by this staff.

5. I am awesome at picking games - Not to toot my own horn here or anything but let's just rewind to last Friday and see what my predictions were and compare them to the actual results.

My pick: Scholastica over Crown by 31             Reality: Scholastica over Crown by 32
My pick:  Northwestern over MLC by 21            Reality: Northwestern over MLC by 21
My pick: Morris over Presentation by 10            Reality: Morris over Presentation by 7*

*Even though our intern incorrectly posted that Presentation won 35-28 - He's currently running laps to make up for his blunder. Jay's and my apologies go out to Cougar Nation.

My pick: MacMurray over Westminster by 1     Reality: MacMurray over Westminster by 2
My pick: Greenville over Eureka by 10              Reality: Greenville over Eureka by 7

And if you look at the scores, I was even very close on those as well with the exception of the NWC-MLC game. I guess what I am trying to say is, "You are welcome fans of UMAC Central for telling you what is going to happen a day early."

Q&A with Brendon Foss

Brendon Foss, star wide receiver of the University of Minnesota-Morris Cougars, recently answered a few questions for us about his football experience and his recent performance this past weekend which earned our Outstanding Player of the Week award. Congratulations again Brendon, you earned it, keep up all the hard work and we wish you a great finish to your junior year.

The Numbers:

In last week's non-conference game against the Presentation College Saints, Foss put up 181 yards on 10 receptions for an average of 18.1 per catch, including touchdown catches of 44 yards and 1 yard as the Cougars defeated the Saints 35-28. This was his second 180+ yard game in the last 3 weeks as he also passed the mark against Westminster College on October 6th going for 182 yards on 12 catches. Brendon's effort this last week was part of the Cougars' season-high 506 yards of offensive production led by QBs Daniel Garrigan and Derrick Foss, Brendon's brother. Foss's 115.2 yard receiving average per game is 2nd in the UMAC, although he has only played in 5 games this season.

Q&A:

What is your first football memory?

Playing one on one tackle football against my brother in the front yard with my mom being all time quarterback.

What was the biggest key to your individual success in last week’s performance?

Both our quarterbacks made good reads and were able to get me the ball. Our O-Line had great pass protection and blocking all game, along with the running-backs picking up the blitz. The other receivers ran crisp routes allowing me to get open.

Where does your recent performance rank for you on your list of individual best games?

Top 5

What did you eat for breakfast on game day?

Spaghetti and fruit

What is the biggest area you want to improve upon moving forward?

Keeping defenders hands off me as well as increase my speed

What is going to be the key to your team succeeding this week?

Offensively everybody doing their assignments and making plays while our Defense continues to create turnovers and give us the ball back to put points up.

What is on your pregame music playlist?Whatever the guys got playing in the locker room, get a good mix.

Who is your favorite NFL athlete?

Tough to single one out, anyone on the MN Vikings being a die- hard fan.

Where do you see yourself in 5 years?Most likely having a job within my business management major.

What, if any, are your gameday rituals?Eat breakfast with the team, lay in bed watching CMT country music videos, get to the field early to get dressed and focused, then thank God for another opportunity to play the game and perform.

Week 8 Power Rankings

1.  Northwestern’s offensive formula is pretty simple. Run the football and then use play action to get big plays from the passing game. RB’s Josh Sinnen and Chris Simon-Wallace are both averaging over 6 yards a carry. The only team capable of stopping Northwestern’s run game on the schedule was St. John’s who made it tough on the Eagles’ run game and forced QB Josh Balzer into mistakes. Greenville and Eureka both allow over 175 yards a game on the ground so it doesn’t look like there are any teams that can stop Northwestern. The only hope teams like Greenville and St. Scholastica have to win the conference is if Greenville or Eureka can outscore Northwestern. Good luck.

2.  St. Scholastica. Those are the Saints that we all know and love. After a sloppy win last week against a bad Westminster team, the Saints never let Crown have any breathing room. QB Tyler Harper played well, granted against an average Crown secondary, and shows promise for next year. There isn’t much else to say about this team. They are hands down the second best team in the conference and if they played Northwestern again 9 other times they’d probably win 4 to 5 times. Unfortunately, that won’t cut it this year. The Saints are living on a prayer.

3.  Greenville was up 35 to 7 at halftime. All of the perennial Panther benchwarmers started doing some high knees/ butt kicks during the half to get warmed up. And then they allowed 35 points in the second half. I’m convinced that if Eureka would have had one more legitimate possession, they would have tied it up. At this point of the season there are no secrets; they Panthers defense couldn’t stop a powderpuff team, but it won’t matter until they play Northwestern. They had better figure out how to play defense in that game because if they haven’t noticed, Northwestern’s offense is not too shabby. Greenville has figured out how to win these types of games, but I’m not sure winning shootouts week in and week out is a recipe for long term success.   

4.  Minnesota Morris is better than any of the teams below them in the power rankings, but they can’t beat anyone ahead of them in the rankings. That is to say there is not much of a middle class in the UMAC this year. As predicted, WR Brandon Foss had a big impact on the game on Saturday. (Hint: if Morris wants to beat St. Scholastica, I would figure out a way to get Foss the ball). Both QB’s are playing well lately so no controversy there. After much deliberation, the only reason that I see that Morris plays two QB’s is that both are seniors and neither QB separates himself from the other so the coaches decided to play them almost equal amounts. Morris should finish the season 6-4 after a win at Crown and a loss to St. Scholastica. Not a bad season for the Cougars.

5.  Eureka almost pulled off the upset against Greenville, but they were not able to overcome their mistakes made in the first half. That could be the story of the season for Eureka. So close…but not close enough. The Red Devils welcome Northwestern to town this week.

6.  Martin Luther. Oh boy, I’ve done it now. Martin Luther doesn’t even have a conference win and I have them at 6? Here’s the deal, my power rankings aren’t based on conference standings. Instead, it’s based on the fact that I think that if Martin Luther played any of the teams below them at a neutral site they would win the game. They put up 26 points against Northwestern. That’s more than anyone else in the conference, and I’d venture to bet that defense is still pretty solid even though they have been giving up a lot of points lately.

7.  Crown. You haven’t done anything to deserve this spot or done anything to lose it. You are beating the teams that I expected you to beat and losing to teams I knew you would lose to. I believe that could be a definition of mediocrity.

8.  MacMurray. I didn’t go back to check, but I do believe this is your first week out of the cellar. Congratulations! Tommy was just plain giddy about your victory. It’s like he actually played the game with you or something. Unfortunately for the staff at UMAC Central, your victory has created something of a monster. We’ll never hear the end of it. No matter, hopefully this can give MacMurray something to build on in the future.

9.  Westminster. The bad news: There is no such thing as a UMAC draft where the worse you play the better draft pick you get. The good news: it’s been reported that none of your players fell out of the endzone (although that probably would have been a good thing because that might have meant that you scored a little more often) and your fans are safe even though one leg of the visitor’s bleachers hangs off of the hill. There’s always a silver lining.