Northwestern Season Preview

Northwestern College will never again be champions of the UMAC. Of course, that is primarily because Northwestern College no longer exists. Northwestern has upgraded to university status and is now officially known as the University of Northwestern – St. Paul. I am not sure if that is supposed to mean that it is the official university of the northwestern quadrant of Saint Paul or if it is the Saint Paul campus of the University of Northwestern system. All name confusion aside, the Eagles put together a great campaign in 2012 and have once again established themselves as a dominant force in the UMAC. Although they finished last season on a disappointing note – losing to Greenville College in back to back games which included a home loss preventing the Eagles from playing in the DIII national playoffs for the first time in school history followed by an overtime loss on a missed extra point at Greenville in the NCCAA Victory Bowl – NWC still had a season they can be proud of in 2012. They peeled off eight wins in a row at one point rolling through all UMAC competition and looking like the best team in the conference for the majority of the season. After their Week 6 road victory over St. Scholastica by one point, Northwestern controlled their own destiny and appeared set to coast to a UMAC title. However, those pesky Greenville Tigers who had lost to Scholastica by a score of 45-3 earlier in the year, managed to snake bite the Eagles again at the end of the season. In their last 4 matchups with the Tigers, the Eagles are now 0-4 with losses of 27-28, 16-27, 23-27, and 20-26. Although the Eagles easily dismantled most UMAC competition and looked far better in doing so than did either Scholastica or Greenville, who often struggled against lesser opponents, they were once again unable to beat the Panthers. I don’t know if it is a case of the Panthers being a team that plays its best football at the end of the year when the Eagles are starting to tail off, or if it is simply that the Panthers match up well against the Eagles. Whatever the reason, the Eagles have yet to show that they can beat the top team from the South and until they do so they will continue to fall short of their ultimate goal.

Big Losses

Northwestern has lost as much to graduation as any team in the conference moving into 2013. Key losses include 3-year starting QB Josh Balzer (who we had rated as the best overall QB in the UMAC last season), top receiver Brian Lecheler, 1^st Team All-Conference Tight End Matt Dammann, and D-End and Lineman of the Year Josh Swore. By our count, the Eagles are losing 12 starters to graduation – and many of those at key positions.

Key Returners

Although the Eagles are losing a number of key members from their 2012 roster, they are not without a sizable group of talented returners. Both of last season’s leading rushers, Josh Sinnen and Chris Simon-Wallace, who ran for 764 and 682 yards, respectively, return in 2013 expecting to receive even more touches.  Defensive End Nathan Van Zee is coming off a huge sophomore season in which he racked up 64 tackles and 4.5 sacks. DB Cody Kielsa also returns for his senior season and, according to UNW’s athletic website, was one of four Eagles named to USA Football’s Preseason All-American list. (Although, after clicking on the link provided in the article, which directed me to this page - http://www.usafbn.com/d3fb.htm - I am not so sure that is an impressive honor. Seriously, who made that website, a fourth-grader?) Overall, UNW is a good program which tends to reload rather than rebuild.

Key to 2013

The biggest factor in determining how far the Eagles go this season will be the play of their new starting quarterback. Josh Balzer was especially efficient in leading the offense last season, throwing 23 touchdowns compared to only 8 interceptions. Compare that to his first year as the starting signal caller in 2010 in which he threw 9 touchdowns and 20 interceptions and you get an idea as to the type of drop-off we could see at that position in 2013. The Eagles have 2 QBs returning to their roster who have thrown a pass in their career: Junior Jacob Fletcher, who is the front-runner to win the job, comes in with 23 career passing attempts and Sophomore Grant Schoen comes in with 4. Expect opponents to stack the box in an attempt to shut down the run game and force the Eagle’s QB to beat them. If Fletcher can put together a solid year, the Eagles will be in the hunt for a conference championship. If there are some growing pains, and I suspect there will be, expect to see an increase in turnovers and a decrease in wins in 2013.

Prediction

The last time the Eagles had a rookie starter at QB was 2010, a season in which they went 1-8. I am not suggesting they will have a season as horrendous as that, however, it is difficult for me to see the Eagles replicating last season’s success with a rookie under center. There is no doubt in my mind UNW will continue to be one of the most effective rushing teams in the league. They have two of the best RBs in the conference paired with what always seems to be a strong offensive line.  I also expect their defense to once again be a strong unit that suffocates the running game. In games against the bottom half of the conference, those two things will be more than enough to dominate time of possession, control the ball, and win games. However, the better teams of the conference will force the Eagles to throw the football. Will the Eagles’ rookie QB be able to step up to the challenge and win big games against CSS and Greenville in weeks 6 and 7? If you asked me, I would probably say no. Could I see the Eagles putting it all together and going 8-1 in conference? Sure. But I could also see them going 4-5. Most likely, I see them as a 6 to 7 conference win team. The Eagles will take a step backward from last season, but not enough of a step back to be surpassed by the bottom teams of the conference. I predict they will once again handle the lower third of the conference – teams they beat by 4+ touchdowns last year will not be a problem this season. However, to be an elite team they will have to beat Greenville and Scholastica – teams which they are a combined 1-5 against over the past 3 seasons. If they have struggled against those teams in the past, there is no reason for me to think they will be more effective this year with a rookie QB. Put UNW down for a 6-3 conference record and a third place finish.