Westminster Season Preview

Westminster came into the 2012 season expecting big things. After an eight-win season in 2011, the Blue Jays were picked to finish third in the conference by the coaches of the UMAC (shows how much they know… although we also picked them to finish third so I guess that shows how much we know as well). They returned the bulk of their starters from the previous season and brought in a new, highly-touted starting quarterback who was supposed to take the team to the next level. All indications were that the Jays would be a force to be reckoned with in the UMAC. Then the season came and that all went down the crapper. Westminster did not simply lose a few tough games last season, they fell off the face of the earth, dropping to a 2-6 conference record and finishing in 7^th place. What happened? How did a team that was supposed to compete for a conference championship fall apart so quickly? I am not sure if anyone has the complete answer to that, but I will do my best to speculate as to the cause of Westminster’s 2012 collapse.

I think we have to begin our breakdown of what went wrong in 2012 with the quarterback position. All of us at UMAC Central were baffled when we learned that Scott Rodgers, who as a sophomore in 2011 led the Jays to 8 wins playing very well along the way, had been moved to receiver. We all assumed this new quarterback Joe Plassmeyer must be something special to come in and instantly take the job from the incumbent starter who had performed well the year before as a sophomore. Now hear me out, I do not think that Plassmeyer played poorly last season nor is he to blame for their terrible season. He had a pretty dang good statistical year in fact - 3000 yards passing, 27 TDs to 13 INTs, 59.5% completion percentage. I will even go so far as to say that Plassmeyer is probably a far better quarterback than Rodgers. However, I think the move significantly hurt Westminster last season. They took arguably their most dynamic playmaker and barely utilized him at all. Rodgers was the team’s fourth-leading receiver in 2012. Are you telling me that a team with a 2-6 record in the UMAC was so offensively loaded that they could not get this kid the ball? Clear mismanagement of talent by the coaching staff (coincidentally, Rodgers is not on the 2013 roster after graduating a year early). Secondly, what happened to the running game? Yes, Zain Gower was a big loss but Westminster went from averaging 141.4 rush yards per game in 2011 to 24.3 in 2012. What??? For you Phy Ed majors out there that is almost 120 fewer yards per game. The only way that happens is when the coaching staff gives up on the run. Finally, the defense was significantly worse. In 2011, the Jays defense gave up 276 yards per game and 17.2 points per game. In 2012 they gave up 359 ypg and 24.4 ppg. Basically, in 2011 they controlled the line of scrimmage and in 2012 they lost interest in doing that. And it showed in the results.

Big Losses

While the Blue Jays return the majority of their starters from last season, they did lose some key players including the likes of 1^st Team WR James Gladstone (1246 receiving yards and 14 TDs), 2^nd Team OL Derrick Jensen, 1^st team DL Rodney Lyles (52.5 tackles, 17.5 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks), and LB Gus Lyles (54.5 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks). The Blue Jays are sure to feel the loss of their best offensive player and two best defensive players.

Key Returners

The good news for Westminster is that they do return 8 starters on each side of the ball (at least they say they do – my calculations have fewer than that, but whatever).  Most importantly, Joe Plassmeyer returns for his junior season and second season as a starter in this offense. Tight end Mac Findeiss returns to the lineup for his third season as a starter after racking up 454 receiving yards last season. The defensive side of the ball will be anchored by Senior DB Jeremy Hampton (1^st Team All Conference 2012, 4 INTs, 6 break ups) and Junior DE Kyle Bryant (apparently a Preseason All-American although I am not sure what that is based on after recording a grand total of 9.5 tackles in 2012). The Blue Jays have also brought in a large recruiting class and expect some big contributions from newcomers.

Key to 2013

1. The Blue Jay’s success in 2013 will hinge on 3 key factors:  Continued development of Joe Plassmeyer – Plassmeyer put up some good stats in his sophomore season, but it is one thing to rack up 3,00 yards and 27 TDs while throwing 52 times a game. It’s another thing to lead a balanced, efficient offensive attack week in and week out even against the good teams. Joe needs to take the next step this season if his team is going to compete.
2. Re-establishment of the run – Averaging 24 rushing ypg is pathetic. Absolutely pathetic. The Westminster coaches should be embarrassed about what happened last season. Hopefully they learned from last season’s debacle and come into 2013 with a renewed commitment to controlling the line of scrimmage and having a balanced attack. If not, expect the same results this season – amazing passing stats for Plassmeyer and 2 wins for the team.
3. Effective integration of newcomers – The Blue Jays brought in a lot of new players for the 2013 season which is always good news for the program. What remains to be seen, however, is how quickly everyone can get on the same page. Will this team have strong chemistry right from the get-go and come out of the gates flying or will it take them until midway through the season to be clicking on all cylinders? The answer to that question may very well determine their success in 2013.

Prediction

The good news for Westminster is that they will be better in 2013. How could they be worse? This team has talent. In fact, in terms of pure talent they are probably top 3 in the conference. However, having talent and having well-coached, good football players are two entirely different things. Because of their talent, the Blue Jays have a chance to compete with any team in this conference. Because of their inconsistency and poor coaching, they have a chance to lose to lose to anyone (22-24 to MacMurray last season for example). This season, Plassmeyer will be even better and will put up great numbers again. Their team will be competitive week in and week out and may even pull off an upset of a team that finishes higher than them. However, I don’t have confidence in their ability to re-establish a running game and they simply have far too many unknowns for me to see them as any more than an average squad. The Blue Jays will finish the season in sixth place with a 4-5 conference record.