Sunday, September 1, 2013

Minnesota Morris Preview

The University of Minnesota-Morris Cougars are the enigma of UMAC football. They are impossible to figure out from week to week much less from season to season. A quick look at their 2012 campaign in which they finished 5-3 in the UMAC, good enough for a fourth-place finish, leaves you thinking this is a team on the brink of being a contender to win the conference in 2013. D3football.com certainly thinks highly of the Cougars ranking them ahead of Greenville in their national rankings and projecting them to finish the season with a 7-2 conference record. But quite frankly, d3football.com has about 14 other conferences they are more focused on and doesn’t know what they are talking about when it comes to UMAC football. Luckily, you have us to set everyone straight. Allow us to take a deeper look at Morris’ 2012 season. The Cougars certainly did some things well last season. They beat every team in the conference with the exception of the 3 teams that tied for first place. In the final week of the season they even had a good shot at beating Scholastica before falling 28-21. But let us not forget that in Week 1 the Cougars lost to Hamline. That is correct – the Hamline Pipers. They beat MacMurray by 3 points, Eureka by 4, and Crown by 1. As that old adage goes, “A win is a win” and I am not trying to take anything away from the Cougars, but you will have to excuse me if I am not brimming with excitement for a team that eked out a 3 point win over the 238th ranked team in the country. Was 2012 a stepping stone season in which the Cougars demonstrated they are a team that knows how to win the close games or was it a season in which they had every break fall their way in close games and could have just as easily gone 4-6? Morris would want to believe they are right there with the top 3 teams – maybe just a little below. I would contend, however, that the chasm between those teams and Morris last year was the size of the Grand Canyon and, in reality, the teams that finished 4th – 6th were all pretty interchangeable.

Big Losses
It is tough when you lose a four-year starting quarterback. When you lose two of them in the same year you might as well close up shop. Of course, for most schools it would be impossible to lose two four-year starting quarterbacks in the same season, but that is part of the Cougars’ charm. As we all know by now, the Cougars rotated Dan Garrigan and Derrick Foss all season long without any apparent rhyme or reason to the substitutions other than the coaches wanted to make sure no feelings got hurt. The two QBs finished the year with very similar numbers and when combined actually made for one pretty respectable starter with 253 passing ypg, a 50% completion percentage, 25 TDs, and 9 INTs. As stupid as the Cougars rotating QB system was, they will miss the leadership and experience they had at that position last season. On the defensive side of the ball, Morris will miss linebackers Zeke Miller and Caleb Forstrom who were the 2nd and 3rd leading tacklers on the team in 2012.

Key Returners
The Cougars bring back both their best offensive and defensive player from last year’s squad in WR Brendon Foss and LB Cody Hickman. Foss is probably the best receiver in the conference averaging 112 receiving ypg in 2012 while compiling 8 TDs. I don’t think we need to get too carried away with Foss, calling him an NFL prospect and what not, but he is a good player on par with some of the other good receivers we have seen come through the UMAC in recent years. Hickman led the conference with 119 tackles last season. That number is strangely high – leading me to wonder if either the scorekeepers at Morris are getting a little happy with the assisted tackles or if Hickman is truly the only person on the defense that knows how to tackle. By comparison, Hickman had almost 30 more tackles than any player on Scholastica, Northwestern, or Greenville. Hmm…. Regardless, Hickman is clearly their best defensive player and the Cougars are glad to have him back. They will also expect big contributions from offensive returners Leandro Dower and Dalton DeGraffenreid who both demonstrated flashes of brilliance in 2012.

Keys to 2013
1.  Can they find a quarterback? – In a lot of ways, graduating two senior QBs will be good for UMM. They finally get to rid themselves of this nagging situation that had pestered them for 4 years. Maybe they can finally establish a starting QB that gets to play every game, every series and develop into the best player he can be. Asking a QB to be the leader of the team and get into a rhythm while playing half of the series is absurd. That is the good news. The bad news, however, is the reality that it is difficult to replace starting quarterbacks. We saw a huge drop-off last season from Scholastica’s offense going from Alex Thiery to a rookie in Tyler Harper. We saw it at Martin Luther when they lost Greg Holzhueter. We saw it a few years ago when Northwestern lost Zach Tarter. Replacing quarterbacks is not easy. Should we expect that Morris can more easily replace a starting QB than Scholastica, Northwestern, or MLC?

2. Can their offensive line improve? – The Cougars have had the worst offensive line in the conference, nay, in all of football the past two seasons. They have big guys that quite simply cannot move. It doesn’t matter how good your receivers or running backs are if you cannot get them the ball because the defensive line is in the backfield all game long. Until the Cougars find a way to put together a respectable offensive line they will not be able to do anything against the good teams of the UMAC.

Prediction
When putting together a team the first thing you want to establish is a quarterback. The second thing you want to establish is your offensive line. The Cougars have huge question marks at both. So, while Foss is an outstanding player and while they have arguably the best receiving corps in the conference and while their running backs will be above average and their defense will be decent, the Cougars will have a very disappointing 2013 campaign. Morris comes into this season expecting to make the jump to the top of the conference, but I foresee them going the other direction. The gap between the Cougars and Greenville, Scholastica, and Northwestern was too great last season for me to predict they finish better than any of those squads. The gap between Morris and the teams below them was not all that big and teams like Martin Luther, Westminster, and Crown return starters at QB while Morris does not. For that reason, Morris will drop to 3-6 in conference and finish in 7th place. I will leave you with one final disclaimer, however. If there is one team in the UMAC I expect to prove me wrong, it is the Cougars. They did it last year on their way to 5 conference victories. So go ahead and use this as bulletin board material Cougar Nation. You are welcome.


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