Week 9 Predictions: Jay's Picks

Jay's Picks (4 of 5 Week 8, 31 of 45 on the season)
In my mind, there is not much question about who will win each game this week, save for our game of the week. Outside of the Martin Luther at Crown game, every game is an uneven matchup and it will be a very uninteresting week to watch UMAC football, unless you are a parent and you get excited just to see little Johnny makes the field on special teams. Nonetheless (which I just found out is one word), I will still be putting full effort into making my picks, just for your enjoyment. You can thank me later.

Northwestern @ MacMurray- The worst part for Northwestern is that they have to drive 10 hours for a practice. The best part, they is they get to count this practice as a win, just for showing up. Northwestern's offense is going to be too much for the Highlanders defense who gives up 38.5 points 414.2 yards per game. The Highlanders may score a few times in the second half, but it will be too little, too late. As long as the visitor's sideline doesn't slide off into the valley next to Fressen Field, there should be little to no contest in this game. Northwestern 40 MacMurray 20

Eureka @ Iowa Wesleyan- The Tigers drew some interest last week with their early second half lead over Greenville, but that was quickly dashed away as the Panthers ran away with that game, totalling over 650 yards of offense. Eureka's offense isn't as potent as the Panthers, but it is still good and should be able to score a fair amount of points. Iowa Wesleyan has shown some potential but I don't think their offense will matchup well against Eureka's physical defense that has only allowed three teams (Greenville, Westmisnter, and St. Scholastica) to score more than 20 points. This game won't be a blowout, but the winning team won't break a sweat on their way to victory. Eureka 31 Iowa Wesleyan 14

Minnesota-Morris @ St. Scholastica- This game could be interesting for a little while as last year the Cougars nearly defeated the Saints and kept them from "earning" a bid to the NCAA playoffs. However, with this game being at St. Scholastica's "home" field and the Cougars playing more like kittens, the Saints will keep their undefeated streak going. Jake Jensen has been dominating behind the Saints o-line the last couple weeks and I do not think the Cougars defense will be able to end his run. The best thing the Cougars can do is look at improving Brendon Foss' NFL draft stock by throwing him every pass from all three QBs. St. Scholastica 42 Minnesota-Morris 24

Westminster @ Greenville- One of these two teams has averaged the most yards lost to penalties per game. That's right, Greenville is the most penalized team in the UMAC, averaging 86.6 yards lost to penalties each game. Westminster, is second with 76.5 yards per game. Now what does this have to do with who will win the game? Probably nothing, but I needed something to talk about besides how good Greenville's offense is going to perform like I do every week. Greenville 49 Westminster 24

Game of the Week

Martin Luther @ Crown- Due to the lack of a game that matters for playoffs standings this week, the Knights and Storm receive the honor of playing in the Game of the Week. Crown is an up and coming team with a lot of potential. The Storm are currently riding their first 3 game win streak since 2010. Martin Luther is coming off a big win over Minnesota-Morris. I think Crown is a much more well-rounded football team and their depth will be the winning factor. Crown 35 Martin Luther 23

Week 9 Predictions: Tommy's Picks

Tommy's Picks (4 of 5 Week 8, 34 of 45 on the season)

Northwestern @ MacMurray- The Eagles offense will be too much for this undisciplined MacMurray defense to handle. This game will be over before it begins. Northwestern 40 MacMurray 15

Eureka @ Iowa Wesleyan- Although the Tigers are much improved from the start of the season, Eureka's talent, depth, and physicality will give them a big edge. Eureka 34 Iowa Wesleyan 23

Minnesota-Morris @ St. Scholastica- Last season the Cougars almost ended the Saints season with a loss. But this year the Saints are more focused and Minnesota-Morris looks unprepared and lacking the will to win. St. Scholastica 42 Minnesota-Morris 21

Westminster @ Greenville- the promise that the Blue Jays showed at the start of the year was deceptive and has since vanished. Greenville has been mostly unstoppable, especially for the lower half of the conference. Greenville 54 Westminster 24

Game of the Week

Martin Luther @ Crown- Both teams are young, but Crown has a lot more potential and is beginning to reach that as the season goes on. Luke Rothe will pass and rush for 100 yards each, but that will not be enough. Crown 35 Martin Luther 26

Week 8 Power Rankings

And then there were two. Eureka has eliminated themselves from a possibility of playoff contention with their loss this weekend. It now comes down to Greenville and St. Scholastica who will meet in the final week of the season. There are only two weeks left in this season, and for some of you, your career. So get out there and finish this year well, no matter your record (or how I rank your team).

1. Greenville- Despite a slow start this last week going into halftime with a  10-10 tie, Greenville erased any doubt in the second half, outscoring the Tigers 35-13 in the final 30 minutes. The slow start was caused by two first quarter fumbles by Greenville’s running backs, but fortunately the defense was able to hold IWC to just one field goal off of those turnovers. The Panthers offense dominated on the ground, setting a season high with 523 rushing yards while also passing for 149 yards. Their total of 672 yards offensively is the second highest total in the UMAC this season, just behind the 682 yards St. Scholastica put up against the Tigers in week 2 of the season. The Panther remain undefeated and should extend their win streak to 17 games next week against the Westminster Blue Jays.

2. St. Scholastica- The Saints solidified their second place ranking with their 13 point victory over Eureka. After jumping out to an 24-0 lead with just under 5 minutes left in the first half, the Saints held off the Red Devils late attempt at a comeback to remain undefeated. With this victory, the Saints keep their destiny in their own hands with two games remaining. The Saints have been fairly dominant throughout their conference schedule this season, with only Crown, Northwestern, and Eureka slowing their pace. Boasting the best defense in the conference, St. Scholastica has held teams to 14 points or fewer in six of their eight games and they also allow a league low 281.8 yards per game to opposing offenses. The Saints should breeze by Minnesota-Morris this week, preparing for the end of the year matchup with Greenville College, which in all likelihood, will determine who represents the UMAC in the playoffs.

3. Eureka- With a chance for a chance at the playoffs in their reach, the Red Devils cannot close the deal, losing 38-25 to St. Scholastica. Letting the Saints take a 24-0 advantage is never a good way to try and win a game. It looks like Eureka just got outplayed as the ball was marched down the field on the first three scoring drives before the defense seems to have gotten sloppy and given up three 40+ yard scoring plays. The offense didn't help their situation by gaining 10 total yards on six of their first eight drives combined. WIth playoff hopes gone, this Red Devils can take pride in being the first Eureka football team since 1996 that will finish with a winning record

4. Northwestern- In this week's win over Westminster, the Eagles put together the most complete game they've played so far this season, despite giving up more points than they should have. But as a young team, they have been steadily improving as the year has gone on. Better than everyone below them but not quite as good as anyone above them. The Eagles have earned this fourth spot, not necessarily by being good enough, but just by not being as bad as the teams below them. We did not expect them to win the championship, and they won't. But so far this team has played better than we expected after losing so many starters to graduation, and I expect as they mature, this young team will be much better next season.

5. Crown- Welcome to the top five. I've seen the potential all season and the Storm are finally beginning to live up to it. I say beginning to because I believe there is still a lot more growth to be done for this young team. The passing game has room for improvement but most of their weak areas - mental errors, strength, miscommunications - are due to lack of experience, youth, and trying to find the best lineup. Crown is well coached and I believe if they can hold onto this recruiting class, will no longer be looked over when considering the top teams in the UMAC.

6. Minnesota-Morris- Losing to Martin Luther, despite being +4 in the turnover margin is disappointing to me. But despite the loss, I still believe the Cougars match up better against the teams ranked higher than the Knights do, so therefore they will hold this position. Morris switched up their quarterback again, opting to go with Donnie Mavencamp for the majority of the snaps over Caleb McLaren. Again, I'm not sure the reasoning, but the switch didn't work. The Cougars even put in a third quarterback, apparently trying to outdo last year's two QB system. With all the promise this team had at the outset from returning so many starters, they really have not met the expectations.

7. Martin Luther- The Knights three wins this season come against teams who are a combined 4-20, none of whom have a winning record, while their four conference losses come against teams who are a combined 25-7, with all of these teams having a .500+ win percentage. Rothe & Friends had two 100 yard rushers for the third time this season with Matt Olson joining his QB in the 100 yard club. Rothe picked up his fumble habit from early last season again, losing 4 of 5 fumbles to the Cougars. The Knights face two opponents who currently have sub .500 win percentages, so they could pull off a couple more wins.

8. Iowa Wesleyan- Halloween is coming up this week, but last Saturday anybody watching was confused about which team was wearing which costume as the team known as the Panthers was wearing orange and the Tigers were wearing black and purple. From the onset the game between the Tigers and Panthers was very Freaky Friday-esqe. The Tigers held a 17-10 lead just seconds into the second half and it had me wondering if maybe Brendan Chambers and Zandro Diaz had bumped heads before the game and swapped abilities. However, the Tigers couldn’t keep up all the Hocus Pocus and eventually succumbed to the Panthers 45-14. The offense is doing fairly well for the Tigers, but the defense is leaving something to be desired, giving up 672 yards is rarely ever going to allow your team to win. But as I've said all season, this team plays with heart and I believe they just need a few years of recruiting to become a respectable team in the UMAC.

9. Westminster- The Blue Jays last Saturday played the same uninspired football we've seen all season. They manage to not put up a fight while not getting completely blown out at the same time. It's like they go into these games playing just for their dignity and not to actually get a win. What we thought at the beginning of the year was a team with potential has turned out to be just that, a team with potential. Maybe next year they will beginning to reach it.

10. MacMurray- Not much to be said here, same issues I have been addressing all season - some decent athletes with poor execution and decision making. I do not know if its coaching or player committment or both, but something will need to improve here before this team can make an impact on the UMAC. I hate beating a dead horse but a dead horse is about all this MacMurray team could beat.

Week 8 Predictions: Tommy's Picks

Tommy's Picks (4 of 5 Week 7, 30 of 40 on the season)
I am going to apologize in advance, its busy season at work so I am going to do this real quick. But before I get there, I want to thank the Iowa Wesleyan Tigers for pulling through for me last week and giving me a win over Jay. Wish I could pick you guys again this week.

Westminster @ Northwestern- Westminster lost their star running back and need their quarterback, Joe Plassmeyer to pull through for them this week if they are going to win because the Eagles rush defense isn't going to give up a game to a backup running back. Northwestern has been steady all year for three quarters, but hasn't been able to play complete games. But this week the Eagles won't need to play more than three quarters. Northwestern 38 Westminster 20

Greenville @ Iowa Wesleyan- The Tigers are just overmatched in this one. Greenville has momentum, experience, talent at every position, and great coaching. Iowa Wesleyan has some of those, but experience and lack of talent at all position hurts them. Chambers and Stull each rush for 100+ yards in this one. The Panthers will give up a few points to Tigers QB Zandro Diaz but it won't be enough. Greenville 52 Iowa Wesleyan 17

MacMurray @ Crown- I hate to say it again, but MacMurray has talent but not enough players all around to compete. Crown is gradually getting it all together - lots of young talent, a new field, and a two-game win streak to boot. Their run game has been fantastic the last two weeks and I don't see the Highlanders stopping it. MacMurray should focus on improving the little things this week. Crown 31 MacMurray 14

Minnesota-Morris @ Martin Luther- The Cougars faced disappointment last week, dropping an overtime game to Crown College. They usually recover well from their losses. Martin Luther plays well against bad teams, and poor against good teams. Luke Rothe will play well against the Cougars defense, rushing for a couple scores and throwing another couple. Brendon Foss catches a pair of scores and goes over 100 yards for the second time this season. Minnesota-Morris 35 Martin Luther 30



Game of the Week

St. Scholastica @ Eureka- Biggest game of the year so far for both teams. Eureka has a chance to have a chance at the championship with a win. St. Scholastica will have their fate in their hands with a win, ultimately coming down to the last game of the season at Greenville. Jake Jensen had a great game last week for the Saints and I believe will have another solid game this week. Eureka's QB Blake Robles has been the most efficient quarterback in the UMAC this year, without any standout receivers or running backs on the field. I believe it will come down to defense, and with DB Alec French and Michael LaValley, the Saints will force Robles into errors he doesn't usually make. St. Scholastica 35 Eureka 28

Week 8 Predictions: Jay's Picks

Jay's Picks (3 of 5 Week 7, 27 of 40 on the season)
I got three games correct again. I believe this is the third week in a row. Consistency is a good thing, but I would like a better performance out of myself this week. I've been looking forward to this week for a while now as Eureka could make a play to get themselves in close contention for the conference championship with a victory of St. Scholastica. I'm tired of Northwestern, Greenville, and St. Scholastica being the only contenders for a championship so it's nice to have Eureka doing well this year. We also see the confused cats matchup against each other in the Greenville at Iowa Wesleyan game, more about that later. Seven weeks down, three to go.

Westminster @ Northwestern- At the start of the year, I would've though this game would be a good matchup for Westminster, their strong passing offense facing Northwestern's spotty pass coverage. However, since Westminster has switched their game plan up and relied so much on the run until recently, it is much less favorable as they face the UMAC's top rush defense in the Eagles who allow just 105.4 yards per game. Plassmeyer has recently been forced to throw more with the loss of their star running back two weeks ago, but he hasn't proven he can have the production he had last season. Northwestern is just coming off a comeback loss to Greenville last week and can't be too happy about that. They face a decent Blue Jays defense that has forced the most interceptions this year, averaging over 2 per game. But fortunately the Eagles are not as one-dimensional as the Blue Jays and can run the ball effectively with junior RB Josh Sinnen. It won't be a pretty game, but I think there will be a clear winner before the game is done. Northwestern 34 Westminster 20

Greenville @ Iowa Wesleyan- This week features Greenville at Iowa Wesleyan, or as I like to call it "The Battle of the Big Cats", where the Tigers look like panthers and the Panthers look like tigers. In case you are unaware, the Panthers have orange uniforms while the Tigers have black/purple uniforms. Someone must've been confused about their animals when they planned those school colors. Let me give you a quick refresher in case you forgot what those animals look like:

This is a panther                                                    This is a tiger.

Anyways, this is football not design class, so lets talk about the game. A few weeks ago, I would have said this is a game that Greenville should win big and win easily. And now, nothing has changed and I still believe Greenville will win easily. Even though Iowa Wesleyan has been developing as the season is going along and performing better, Greenville has been improving as well. The Tigers just don't have the talent or experience to take on the Panthers who have a team full of experienced upperclassmen both on offense and defense. Easy pick. Greenville 45 Iowa Wesleyan 14

MacMurray @ Crown- Crown claimed their second victory in a row last week, leading to their first two-game win streak since the 2010 season. MacMurray has not yet been able to find a win yet this season. The Storm have a team full of young players (60 underclassmen, 18 upperclassmen) and have been gradually developing into a respectable football team. In the last two week, Crown has more than doubled their season's rushing total, and I expect them to take that same approach this week looking to their three freshmen running backs, Duran Zachery, Josh Edlund, and Matt Michaud, to handle the carries. MacMurray has recently switched quarterbacks from Caleb Horvath to Coy Dorothy either due to injury or performance issues. Dorothy played relatively well in his first game as starter, throwing for 233 yards and 2 TDs while completing 56% of his passes against Eureka's defense. The last two games for Crown have gone into overtime, but this game will not take more than 60 minutes to be decided. Crown 28 MacMurray 13

Minnesota-Morris @ Martin Luther- Two offenses that score big against poor defenses facing two poor defenses. I'm expecting big points in this one, with breakout QB Caleb McLaren leading a powerful passing attack and Knights QB Luke Rothe doing the UMAC's best impression of Johnny Manziel. The Knights have been up and down all year, scoring 6 points one week and 68 points the next, we can't be sure which team will show up, but usually at home they put up a fight and keep it close. The Cougars average over 300 yards passing per game and Martin Luther's pass defense is the worst in the league, averaging 291 passing yards allowed per game and only picking off opposing QBs three times this season. Its anyone's game really. Martin Luther 38 Minnesota-Morris 35

Game of the Week

St. Scholastica @ Eureka- Since the Red Devils became the UMAC's surprise team of the year, I have had this game on my calender. It features the top two defenses in the UMAC in terms of points and yards allowed pitted against each other. Saints RB Jake Jensen comes off a monster game in which he rushed for 179 yards and 3 TDs. St. Scholastica is averaging 6.5 yards per carry and 263.9 yards rushing per game but they are facing a Eureka defense that I believe is the most physical defense in the UMAC, and they only allow 112.6 yards on the ground each game. Eureka has a great QB in junior Blake Robles, who has 250.4 yards per game and a TD/INT ratio of 15/4. The Red Devils rush game leaves something to be desired, but it is at least serviceable and they use it well around the goal line. I envision this game to be very similar to St. Scholastica's visit to Northwestern a few weeks ago, which was fairly low scoring. But I believe Eureka is less prone than the Eagles were to making mistakes, giving up only 6 turnovers this season. It's a big game which means, you guessed it, I've got keys to the game for each team.

St. Scholastica
1. Do not turn the ball over. Eureka will not give it back as I mentioned, they have 6 turnovers on the season while they have taken 14 from opposing teams and scoring directly off of three of those turnovers.
2. Have success in the air. Similarly to your matchup with Northwestern, it will be tough to run the ball. Eureka's defensive backfield is not as prone to errors as the Eagles, but it will be easier than trying to pound it up the middle.
3. Limit Eureka's TOP. If you didn't know, that stands for time of possession. They have controlled the ball longer than their opponent in 6/7 games this year. It's a lot easier to win games when you have the ball more. I know you only had the ball for 18 minutes last week, but you played Martin Luther, not Eureka.

Eureka
1. Do not turn the ball over. You have not been giving the ball to other teams much this year and you have been winning. I think there is a correlation.
2. Much like I said for Northwestern, do not let the St. Scholastica runners outside the tackles. They run much better when they get outside. This includes QB Tyler Harper who hurt the Eagles with some scrambles he made when his receivers were covered.
3. Control the ball. St. Scholastica will not score quickly against your defense like they did last week against Martin Luther. If your offense has the ball, it is much harder for them to score, keeping the game close. Your offense is not explosive, but it is good enough it can win this one.

Eureka 28 St. Scholastica 24

Q & A with Jake Jensen

St. Scholastica Saints’ running back Jake Jensen recently answered a few questions for us about his football experience and his performance this past weekend which earned our Outstanding Athlete of the Week award. Congratulations again Jake, you earned it, keep up all the hard work and we wish you a great season.

The Numbers:

(Photo from CSSSaints.com)

Jake’s performance this week paved the way to a 48-14 victory for the Saints over Martin Luther College. He carried the ball 13 times for a career-high 179 yards along with 3 touchdowns. His scoring runs can from distances of 70, 4, and 30 yards as he scored three of the Saints first four touchdowns. With his 13.8 yard per carry average, he set the St. Scholastica school record. He also recorded 1 reception for 18 yards and a kickoff return for 12 yards. Jensen is currently second in the UMAC with 122.4 average rushing yards per game and tied for third in scoring runs with 8 touchdowns.

Q&A:

(Photo from CSSSaints.com)

What was the biggest key to your individual success in last week’s performance?

I think last week’s success had a lot to do with the offensive line really stepping up this week. We had a few new guys in the lineup due to injuries and they did a great job

Where does your recent performance rank for you on your list of individual best games?

It’s hard for me to rank my past games by performance but I would say some of my favorite college games were beating Greenville for the first time sophomore year and our homecoming game that same year where I had 4 rushing td's

What is going to be the key to your team succeeding this week?

I think the key to us beating Eureka this week is take the momentum at the beginning of the game. The past two weeks we have gotten off to a slow start, we need to correct that this week.

What do you love most about the game of football?

What’s not to love about football?

What is the biggest area of your game do you want to improve on moving forward?

Moving forward I think I could improve in all areas of my game, but one thing I would like to maintain this year is no lost fumbles.

What was your most memorable game in high school?

My most memorable game in high school is my very last high school game. We lost in the section championship to St. Thomas academy my senior year coming out of an 0 and 9 season my junior year.

The Week that Was: Week 7

Can you believe there are only three games left until nine teams pack it up for the year and four games left for the lucky team who earns the UMAC AQ to the NCAA Playoffs? We are still pulling for that three-way tie and we are hoping maybe we can turn the random draw into a big, more interesting event like the NBA draft lottery. Better go buy some ping-pong balls, Mr. Borchardt. Until then though, we still have a lot of interesting things going on in the UMAC, so I will highlight some of those recent UMAC happenings as we look back on the week that was.

Crown Wins Again in an Overtime Game

The last two games for Crown College have been tied up as regulation ended, needing an extra period to be decided. Fortunately for the Storm, they came out victorious in both games, with kicker Kurt Fickle knocking in a field goal to win each game. They were also an extra point away from a potential overtime the week before against Greenville, but Fickle was unable to put that through the uprights. The average margin of victory/defeat for the Storm in their conference games this season is 8.5 points, meaning that on average their games all end with just over a one possession margin, showing the games could pretty easily go either way. With a young team and an offense that has been developing as the seasons goes on, this team should only get better next year. UMAC coaches should have this team on their radar if they don't already.

Northwestern Loses Again in an Undertime Game

If you don't remember last week, I coined the term "undertime" for games that are "decidedly over before the fourth quarter starts". Well I've decided to add a second definition to the word - "The period of a game which a team deems as not necessary to perform in." Northwestern opened up their game with a 20-0 lead over the conference-leading Greenville Panthers and nearly made it to halftime with a 20-7 lead. But poor clock management led them to letting the Panthers score just before the halftime buzzer sounded, leaving the Eagles with only a 6 point advantage at the half. Long story short, the Eagles treated the fourth quarter as "undertime" and Greenville ends up taking the lead just as the fourth quarter started and never gave it up, winning 37-24. As Jay reported in the Week 7 Power Rankings, the Eagles have led halftime in 5 of 6 conference games, but hold just a 3-3 UMAC record, that could have easily been 2-4 if Minnesota-Morris had completed their comeback. It makes you wonder if the Eagles forget to eat their Wheaties on game day.

un·der·time

/n., adj.

noun
1. a sporting event or game that is decidedly over before the final period. 

2. a period of a sporting event or game which a team deems as not necessary to perform in.

adjective

3. of or for undertime; undertime game

Usage:

ex: Did you see the Northwestern game? They thought it was an undertime game and didn't play the fourth quarter!

Fun with Numbers

-Crown rushed for 313 yards this week, the second week in a row they have surpassed 300 yards on the ground after going for 364 yards last week. That two-game combined total of 677 yards is 63% more than they had in the first 5 games of the season combined.

-Greenville was a perfect 5/5 (100%) on 4th down this week in their victory.

-Iowa Wesleyan went 2 for 13 (15%) on third down, and won.

-in 40 offensive plays, St. Scholastica only had three third downs, of which they converted only one, and still won by 34.

-St. Scholastica's time of possession this week was 18 minutes, and they won by 34.

-St. Scholastica won by 34.

-Greenville is on a 15 game win streak, going back to September 22, 2012. During that streak, Brendan Chambers has rushed for 26 touchdowns while losing only 2 fumbles.

-Facing Northwestern, Greenville's QB Brendan Chambers was prevented from scoring a rushing touchdown for the first game since the two teams faced each other last year in the regular season.

-This season, there have been four total safeties in the UMAC, all four have occurred for or against Northwestern.

Poll Position
In our poll last week, we asked our readers who would be our UMAC champions this season, or if there would be a 2 or 3 way tie. Here are the results:

(Photo credit to me and my computer for the fantastic screenshot)

48% of our readers pick Greenville to win and another 13% voted for a 3-way tie, which unless Brendan Chambers has been texting all of his friends to go vote thus skewing our statistics, tells us that the Panthers are the heavy favorites throughout the conference to win or co-win the championship.

(Not-so) Silly Social Media

Between our Facebook, Twitter, and Blog, we had a lot of genuine posts by our readers this week and we are not sure what to think about it:

First off, there is this comment on our blog from Anonymous who said that we "make [their] week every week."

I don't know what kind of sad life they live if we make their week EVERY week, but I guess when you go to school in middle-of-nowhere St. Bonifacious it probably doesn't take much. But you're welcome, hope this makes your week again!

Then my favorite player, Jamarco "Tommy's Boy" Clark, gets all sentimental about the UMAC.

If you guys want to have even better sporstsmanship, you could start hugging each other and writing thank you cards to each other after games. Maybe then the UMAC can win the NCAA Sportsmanship Award!

Finally, former MacMurray QB Cody Hussey, who left the Highlanders to go who knows where (maybe he fell off their game field into a ditch?), said it was an honor to play for us.

I was not aware you guys all played for us, but then again I guess Iowa Wesleyan did just win a game for me last week, according to my man, Jamarco.

So after all that touchy-feely emotional stuff, I need to recoup and get myself together. Please feel free to comment and tweet at us this week without so much thoughtfulness because I need some material for next week...

Week 7 Power Rankings

(Photo credit to Avery Marie Photography)

And then there were three. With Greenville's victory this week, Northwestern is officially eliminated from championship contention. We saw two rising teams take down their opponents this week as Crown and Iowa Wesleyan both claimed their second victories of the year, with Crown going into overtime versus Minnesota-Morris for the second time in as many years. After losing to the Highlanders last year, Eureka fought back any urge to repeat and won by a slim 8 point margin to keep their championship hopes alive. There was a lot of movement in the rankings this week, with four teams changing rank since last week.

1. Greenville- One of the hallmarks of successful teams is their ability to never give up and win even when facing a big deficit. Greenville demonstrated this ability this week as they trailed Northwestern 20-0 with just over 5 minutes remaining in the first half. They fought back and took the lead for good just seconds into the fourth quarter. Even though their nationally third-ranked rushing offense was limited by Northwestern to a season-low 252 yards on the ground, Greenville was able to move the ball through the air and find ways to get into the end zone. So far undefeated this season, the Panthers should continue their reign uncontested until the final game of the year when they match up against the St. Scholastica Saints who has been nipping at their heels all season.

2. St. Scholastica- The Saints continue their unbeaten streak in the UMAC with an easy victory over Martin Luther. The team rushed for 343 yards on just 25 rushes – an average of 13.7 yards per carry – including 5 touchdowns. St. Scholastica only faced three third-downs in this game, and did not have an offensive drive of more than 8 plays. While averaging over 37 points per game in UMAC play, the Saints have been dominant in most of their contests. Their two biggest tests are yet to come in Eureka, whom they face this week, and Greenville, where they finish off the regular season.

3. Eureka- Not a surprise here as Eureka defeats MacMurray to push their UMAC record to 5-1. It was a little surprising, however, that the Red Devils only won by a margin of 8 points over a team whose average margin of defeat leading up to this week was 25.3 points. While Eureka’s defense continued their performance, the offense seemed to struggle at times against a MacMurray defense who has allowed 443.3 yards and 42.8 points per game to opposing offenses. Eureka had several short drives, showing the struggles their offense has had at times moving the ball up the field and averaged only 4.6 yards per play. In this coming game against the St. Scholastica Saints, the Eureka offense will need to increase its offensive production if they hope to win a game they must have if they hope to compete for a conference championship.

4. Northwestern- If the Eagles could play a complete game, they could be the best team in the UMAC. But their performance continues to drop in every game as soon as the second half starts. Through seven games, Northwestern has been outscored by opponents in the second half 115 to 59 while outscoring their opponents 97 to 77 in the first half of those games. In fact, the Eagles have led every conference game at halftime, save for the Eureka game where it was tied up until 7 seconds before the halftime horn. I don’t know if it is youth, lack of focus, poor coaching adjustments, endurance, or a combination of all of the above, but the Eagles must solve this issue if they hope to be contenders in the future. I am sure their fans would appreciate fewer broken hearts as well.

5. Minnesota-Morris- Although they lost to Crown this past week, I still have seen more consistent performance out of the Cougars this season than Crown, especially offensively. But one slip up and they could easily swap places with the Storm. Caleb McLaren has been very consistent all season, throwing for at least 270 yards and a pair of touchdowns in every game except the loss to Greenville. However, he also has a conference leading 11 interceptions, likely a result of inexperience at the college level. Defensively, I would like to see the Cougars lock down the run more effectively as they are currently allowing 242.4 yards per game. Unless they improve upon that, they will have a tough time retaining this position as they face Martin Luther and St. Scholastica over the next two weeks - two team who favor the run.

6. Crown- The Storms defense has been one of the biggest surprises of the season as they are ranked 4th in points allowed and passing yards allowed - a big improvement from their 8th place finish in both categories last season. They still are only average against the run, but that has not been their biggest issue this season. Crown's biggest struggle has come on the offensive side of the ball, where the seem to have struggled to find their identity. They started the season pass-heavy, became somewhat balanced, and the last two weeks have become a run-oriented offense, averaging 338 rushing yards and 59 carries in those games. As with any team, defense always comes together faster than offense, and that looks to be the case with Crown, who brought in close to 50 new players this offseason. Look for their offense to get markedly better over these last few weeks as they continue to develop their identity and combine their talent with their will to win

7. Martin Luther- With another big loss to a good team, the Knights continue their trend of low-scoring performances against the better teams. Despite having the ball for 42 of the 60 minutes on the game clock, the Knights were able to muster only 14 points. But I do not fault the offense for this loss as much as I fault the defense (even though half the players might play both ways). The defense gave up several long plays and did not really stand a chance against an expereinced Saints rushing offense. With an enrollment of under 800 students who are mostly preachers and teachers to-be, it is understandable how it can be hard to field enough athletes to put together a complete team. But at least they are trying.

8. Iowa Wesleyan- With their second win of their short Division III history, the Tigers move up in our rankings! As the season goes on, the Tigers continue to show some promise of becoming a team that will make some noise in the UMAC in the future. Right now, I think the team is missing several pieces due to the loss of several players in the offseason, but I believe if they can bring in enough recruits, they will be able to compete with the better teams in the UMAC. QB Zandro Diaz has quietly been one of the best quarterbacks in the conference, averaging 246.6 yards with a conference best 61.6% completion percentage. He will need to reduce his TD/INT ratio however as he is currently 13/8 in that category. His main two targets, Ridge Hobbs and LiMichael Peeples, are currently 1st and 3rd in the UMAC for receiving yards per game with 105.1 and 80.1 yards per game, respectively. Defensively, this team struggles with getting to the quarterback and forcing turnovers, but they lack experience after losing all of last season's starters so it is not unexpected. Senior OLB Jamarco Clark is a bright spot on this defense as he is second in the conference in tackles with 81 total. Unfortunately, the Tigers have a rough stretch ahead to finish the year as they will face Greenville, Eureka, and Northwestern in their final three games.

9. Westminster- Apparently we really overestimated the Blue Jays potential this season. after starting 2-0 in the UMAC, they have lost four straight and they haven't played well in those losses either. Perhaps their biggest loss, however, is the loss of star RB Ronnie Seals Jr. a week ago to an apparent season-ending ankle injury. Seals had accounted for over 39% of the team's total offensive yardage up until his injury. While it appears the Blue Jays may have found another "Junior" to replace him in converted WR Sam Lantz Jr., the main issue all season has been Joe Plassmeyer's ineffectiveness. Hopefully he can get back in the groove before the season is over so there is hope for the Blue Jays next season as he likely returns for another year as their quarterback.

10. MacMurray- Actually not a bad showing for the Highlanders this week as they held Eureka to 23 points and only lost by 8. QB Coy Dorothy seems to be the new leader for MacMurray's offense after throwing for 233 yards and 2 TDs against a very good Eureka defense. The Highlanders offensive line may be a place the coaching staff can focus on for improvement as they gave up 5 sacks and their blocking led to only 40 yards on 30 carries. After facing Eureka, Greenville, and St. Scholastica in the last three weeks, the Highlanders face the up and coming Crown Storm this week, still in search of their first win of the 2013 season

Week 7 Predictions: Tommy's Picks

Tommy's Picks (3 of 5 last week, 26 of 35 this season)
The two games I picked incorrectly last week both went into overtime. It's obvious that you guys at Iowa Wesleyan and Westminster all like me better than Jay so you were fighting to get that win and give me a perfect week of picks. The sentiment is deeply appreciated and will not go unnoticed. Unfortunately you play each other this week so I have to pick one of you. But I still expect you to help me to get my picks right this week.


Eureka @ MacMurray- This is really a no brainer pick for me, but I will explain why if I have to. In the last two weeks, Eureka has defeated Westminster and Martin Luther by an average of 25 points per game. MacMurray has not won a game since week 9 of last season when they defeated... Eureka?... As intriguing as that is, this Red Devils team is much improved from last season and has a conference championship to compete for in the coming weeks whereas last year's Eureka team was competing for the fame of their quarterback. Eureka 52 MacMurray 17

Iowa Wesleyan @ Westminster- I am actually interested to see the outcome of this game. The Blue Jays, we thought, could have been a contender this season in the UMAC, but poor play from the quarterback position combined with allowing too many points on defense has led taken the Blue Jays on a nose dive down the standings. However, their defense has been very good at putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks as they lead the league with 13 interceptions and are second with 18 sacks. It has been reported that UMAC leading rusher Ronnie Seals Jr. is done for the season with an injury for the Blue Jays and they will be struggling to replace his production. The Iowa Wesleyan team is on the rise after gaining their first win a few weeks ago and then losing a close one to Crown last week. Tigers WR Ridge Hobbs has been very good to his QB, hauling in 30 catches and 7 TDs while averaging a UMAC best 19.2 yards per catch. One team is dropping while the other team is on the rise. I am picking the team I believe has the stronger will to win. Iowa Wesleyan 31 Westminster 21

Crown @ Minnesota-Morris- The Cougars have the best passing game in the UMAC, averaging over 325 yards per game between their two quarterbacks.Which one starts this game is anybody's guess, but whoever it is should be looking for WR Brendon Foss who is coming off his best game of the year. Crown's offense has been pedestrian so far this year, but last week rushed for an astounding 364 yards against Iowa Wesleyan. That game alone nearly doubled their rushing yardage for the year. Which offense we will see this week for the Storm is anybody's guess, but it seems they have been experimenting with different lineups all year on offense, so maybe they finally found one that works? Whatever the case, their defense could cause problems for the Cougars as it has for other teams this season. Is Crown due for another win, or will the Cougars get their first victory of the year on their home field? Minnesota-Morris 31 Crown 24

Martin Luther @ St. Scholastica- Luke Rothe and friends recently experienced a 54 point offensive swing in the last two games, going from 68 points to 14 points scored. Against three of the top four teams in the UMAC, Martin Luther has scored a total of 28 points and gained only 267 yards per game. This week, they face the second best team in the UMAC and the story will likely not be much different, especially with St. Scholastica's offense kicking it into gear recently. After last week's unsatisfying win at Northwestern, I'm sure the Saints got a good week of practice in and will be chomping at the bit as they face the Knights. St. Scholastica 37 Martin Luther 13

Game of the Week

Northwestern @ Greenville- In the last four years, Northwestern has lost four times to the Panthers by an average of 5.4 points each game. Their last meeting, in the NCCAA Victory Bowl, was decided by a missed extra point by the Eagles kicker. No matter how good either team is playing in a given year, they always like to keep it close. Despite the Panthers dominance this season, I don't expect this game to stray from that pattern and the teams will likely trade leads into the fourth quarter. Even D3Football.com listed this as one of their "Surprisingly Close Games" of the week in their Triple Take article here: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2013/10/18/triple-take-full-accountability/

The Eagles run defense stopped a powerful St. Scholastica rushing attack last week and they will face another this week in the Panthers offense with Brendan Chambers at the helm. The Eagles must be consistent on offense and keep the chains moving, especially after they cross the midfield line - something they have struggled with this season. The teams match up pretty evenly, and I expect this will be a game you should all want to tune into. In the end, the better team will win. Greenville 35 Northwestern 26

Week 7 Predictions: Jay's Picks

Jay's Picks (3 of 5 Week 6, 24 of 35 on the season)
With all the parity in the UMAC this year (outside of the top three), it has been a rough season for me. The UMAC picture becomes clearer each week, but its not nearly as black and white as it used to be. Unfortunately, there is no game worthy of the "Game of the Weak" title this week, but there could be a few close ones. The Storm finally pulled through for me last week, but can I count on them this week? Northwestern dropped the ball (literally) for me last week, but did they regain my confidence as they face Greenville? Read on to find out...


Eureka @ MacMurray- Eureka is off to their best start in almost 20 years, and will be looking to improve on it as they face the Highlanders this week. MacMurray has not yet won a game this year and their offense is severely undermatched against an aggressive Eureka defense who is allowing only 18 points per game. The Red Devils offense is also kicking it into full gear recently. I don't see this game being close at any point. Eureka 45 MacMurray 13 

Iowa Wesleyan @ Westminster- Both teams are coming off an overtime loss and should be determined to have the game over by the time the 4th quarter horn sounds this week. After showing some toughness last week against Crown, Iowa Wesleyan will have to be in for another fight this week if they hope to win against Westminster. The Blue Jays suffered the loss of UMAC leading rusher Ronnie Seals Jr. last week to a season ending injury and will be looking to make up for the nearly 150 yards he provided per game. Look for Joe Plassmeyer to snap out of the funk he's been in and regain last season's form to take control of the offense. Westminster 27 Iowa Wesleyan 21 

Crown @ Minnesota-Morris- Both teams are coming off an overtime win and should be determined to have the game over by the time the 4th quarter sounds this week (I saved a lot of time trying to come up with an intro to this prediction...). Crown's toughness finally paid off to bring them their first win last week and I believe that will give them some confidence heading into this week. Minnesota-Morris has scored 45 points two weeks in a row and Brendon Foss finally had the breakout performance I believe he has been needing all season. While Crown's defense has been much improved this season, I don't think their offense is experienced enough yet. Minnesota-Morris 41 Crown 28 

Martin Luther @ St. Scholastica- The Saints have not lost a UMAC game this season as they welcome the Knights into town. St. Scholastica's defense has been tough this year, the best in the conference, allowing 15.5 points and 252.2 yards per game. Martin Luther's defense, not so much. A conference worst, 43.7 points per game and second worst 490.5 yards a game. But the Knights offense tends to be a little different than most and they can get some long scoring plays with their "backyard football" style of offense. However, I do not think their unpredictability is something I can predict my picks upon. St. Scholastica 41 Martin Luther 23 

Game of the Week

Northwestern @ Greenville- Had the Eagles won last weekend, this game would have had much bigger implications for Northwestern. However, they did not, so therefore the outcome of this game matters much less for the Eagles. Greenville on the other hand, has St. Scholastica sniffing at their doorstep and Eureka not too far behind. The Panthers will be playing with purpose and I don't believe Northwestern will be able to slow Brendan Chambers and his offense enough to win this game. It may be interesting for a while if the Eagles decide to play all four quarters but I don't think the Eagles can overcome the Panthers' will to win. But because this game is somewhat important in the big picture, here are my keys to the game:

Northwestern:
1. Prevent the pitch and hit Brendan Chambers. As simple as this sounds, stopping the option has proved difficult for most of the UMAC thus far as Greenville is averaging 342.2 rushing yds/game against conference opposition. If you stop the option, the Panthers' offense is limited.
2. Pass the ball. I know you like to run first, but Greenville's passing defense is only average. If you can get those defensive backs staying at home with the receivers, you will open up the field a little more for that outside zone we all know you love to run.
 3. Intercept the ball. On the rare occasion that Chambers throws the ball, it's either been his receiver's ball or nobody's ball so far this year. Out of 115 attempts, he has thrown only a single interception. Picking him off might throw him off his rhythm. 

Greenville:
1. Be yourself. No need to stress out. If you play the game you've been playing all year, you should pull out a victory. Northwestern is tough up front, but their defensive backs struggle with wrapping up on tackles.
2. Pressure the quarterback. Your team has struggled with this, only tallying 9 sacks on the year, but I said it last week and I'll say it again this week - QB Jacob Fletcher makes few mistakes, but when he does, there is usually pressure involved. 
3. Give them poor field position. The Eagles have not proved themselves on long drives this year and last week only scored when starting on St. Scholastica's side of the field. If your drive stalls outside their 40 yard line, opt for a punt and pin them deep on their side of the field.

Greenville 35 Northwestern 20

The Week that Was: Week 6

Week 6 in the UMAC saw Crown and Minnesota-Morris win their games in overtime, Scholastica win a sloppy one at Northwestern, and Greenville and Eureka win their games in “undertime”. You may wonder, “What is ‘undertime’?”. It is a new term I just coined for games that are decidedly over before the fourth quarter starts. With only four weeks remaining, the championship race is becoming tighter and as we’ve said all year, will likely come down to the last week. But why talk about the future when we can talk about the past? Read on my friends.

Say “Cheese!"
As we write our stories each week, we look through team’s rosters to look up info on players we mention in our posts. We see a lot of player pictures where they are smiling to make mom happy or trying to put on a mean mug to fool everyone into thinking they are tough. But we also find a few gems among the pictures and we would like to share a few of those with our readers. So here is a small taste:

 

Happiest player in the UMAC

Forgot his toupee





If it was real, we'd be impressed.

Okay, we're impressed.



The players are, from left to right, top to bottom: Joseph Voltmer (Westminster), Chase Tackett (Iowa Wesleyan), Thomas Welch (Martin Luther), and Frank Lesar (St. Scholastica)

Welcome to the Club
The Martin Luther Knights officially made their first extra point kick of the year, six weeks into the 2013 season. Please join me in congratulating Knights kicker Chester Reinemann for breaking the five week streak for the Knights. Chester made both of his attempts on Saturday, putting the Knights at 2/3 on extra points for the year. Despite their UMAC low 66.7% on extra point kick attempts, the Knights are not the only team with this percentage as Northwestern is also 66.7% on 18 attempts and Minnesota-Morris is close behind at 68% on 25 attempts. Don’t make me pull out another kicking instructional video…

Silly Social Media aka “Who Framed Mr. Olson”<br /> A week ago, we had a comment from “Grant Olson” on our Week 5 Power Rankings. After making a prediction he went on to say that someone else posing as “Grant Olson” framed him with a comment about an injury earlier this season. I have two things to say about this.

- First off, why would anyone in NCAA Division III UMAC football, create a fake injury report and attempt to frame another individual with it. Why not attempt to gain credibility by posting as, say, CSS head coach Greg Carlson, D3football.com’s West Region writer Josh Smith, or NFL analyst Adam Schefter. Some many questions, so few answers. We will have to put Ricky on this case to find the culprit. Whoever you are fake Grant Olson, justice is coming.

- Secondly, Mr. Olson, how can we be sure if this comment by you, was not actually another comment by the fake Mr. Olson. Or maybe you are the fake Mr. Olson, and the real one posts fake injury reports. Or maybe neither of you are Grant Olson. Or maybe both of you are… Okay, this is making my head hurt. New rule, from now on, everyone post under your own name.