Jay's Picks (3 of 5 Week 6, 24 of 35 on the season)
With all the parity in the UMAC this year (outside of the top three), it has been a rough season for me. The UMAC picture becomes clearer each week, but its not nearly as black and white as it used to be. Unfortunately, there is no game worthy of the "Game of the Weak" title this week, but there could be a few close ones. The Storm finally pulled through for me last week, but can I count on them this week? Northwestern dropped the ball (literally) for me last week, but did they regain my confidence as they face Greenville? Read on to find out...
Eureka @ MacMurray- Eureka is off to their best start in almost 20 years, and will be looking to improve on it as they face the Highlanders this week. MacMurray has not yet won a game this year and their offense is severely undermatched against an aggressive Eureka defense who is allowing only 18 points per game. The Red Devils offense is also kicking it into full gear recently. I don't see this game being close at any point.
Iowa Wesleyan @ Westminster- Both teams are coming off an overtime loss and should be determined to have the game over by the time the 4th quarter horn sounds this week. After showing some toughness last week against Crown, Iowa Wesleyan will have to be in for another fight this week if they hope to win against Westminster. The Blue Jays suffered the loss of UMAC leading rusher Ronnie Seals Jr. last week to a season ending injury and will be looking to make up for the nearly 150 yards he provided per game. Look for Joe Plassmeyer to snap out of the funk he's been in and regain last season's form to take control of the offense.
With all the parity in the UMAC this year (outside of the top three), it has been a rough season for me. The UMAC picture becomes clearer each week, but its not nearly as black and white as it used to be. Unfortunately, there is no game worthy of the "Game of the Weak" title this week, but there could be a few close ones. The Storm finally pulled through for me last week, but can I count on them this week? Northwestern dropped the ball (literally) for me last week, but did they regain my confidence as they face Greenville? Read on to find out...
Eureka @ MacMurray- Eureka is off to their best start in almost 20 years, and will be looking to improve on it as they face the Highlanders this week. MacMurray has not yet won a game this year and their offense is severely undermatched against an aggressive Eureka defense who is allowing only 18 points per game. The Red Devils offense is also kicking it into full gear recently. I don't see this game being close at any point.Iowa Wesleyan @ Westminster- Both teams are coming off an overtime loss and should be determined to have the game over by the time the 4th quarter horn sounds this week. After showing some toughness last week against Crown, Iowa Wesleyan will have to be in for another fight this week if they hope to win against Westminster. The Blue Jays suffered the loss of UMAC leading rusher Ronnie Seals Jr. last week to a season ending injury and will be looking to make up for the nearly 150 yards he provided per game. Look for Joe Plassmeyer to snap out of the funk he's been in and regain last season's form to take control of the offense.
Crown @ Minnesota-Morris- Both teams are coming off an overtime win and should be determined to have the game over by the time the 4th quarter sounds this week (I saved a lot of time trying to come up with an intro to this prediction...). Crown's toughness finally paid off to bring them their first win last week and I believe that will give them some confidence heading into this week. Minnesota-Morris has scored 45 points two weeks in a row and Brendon Foss finally had the breakout performance I believe he has been needing all season. While Crown's defense has been much improved this season, I don't think their offense is experienced enough yet.
Martin Luther @ St. Scholastica- The Saints have not lost a UMAC game this season as they welcome the Knights into town. St. Scholastica's defense has been tough this year, the best in the conference, allowing 15.5 points and 252.2 yards per game. Martin Luther's defense, not so much. A conference worst, 43.7 points per game and second worst 490.5 yards a game. But the Knights offense tends to be a little different than most and they can get some long scoring plays with their "backyard football" style of offense. However, I do not think their unpredictability is something I can predict my picks upon. Game of the Week
Northwestern @ Greenville- Had the Eagles won last weekend, this game would have had much bigger implications for Northwestern. However, they did not, so therefore the outcome of this game matters much less for the Eagles. Greenville on the other hand, has St. Scholastica sniffing at their doorstep and Eureka not too far behind. The Panthers will be playing with purpose and I don't believe Northwestern will be able to slow Brendan Chambers and his offense enough to win this game. It may be interesting for a while if the Eagles decide to play all four quarters but I don't think the Eagles can overcome the Panthers' will to win. But because this game is somewhat important in the big picture, here are my keys to the game:
Northwestern:
1. Prevent the pitch and hit Brendan Chambers. As simple as this sounds, stopping the option has proved difficult for most of the UMAC thus far as Greenville is averaging 342.2 rushing yds/game against conference opposition. If you stop the option, the Panthers' offense is limited.
2. Pass the ball. I know you like to run first, but Greenville's passing defense is only average. If you can get those defensive backs staying at home with the receivers, you will open up the field a little more for that outside zone we all know you love to run.
3. Intercept the ball. On the rare occasion that Chambers throws the ball, it's either been his receiver's ball or nobody's ball so far this year. Out of 115 attempts, he has thrown only a single interception. Picking him off might throw him off his rhythm.
Greenville:
1. Be yourself. No need to stress out. If you play the game you've been playing all year, you should pull out a victory. Northwestern is tough up front, but their defensive backs struggle with wrapping up on tackles.
2. Pressure the quarterback. Your team has struggled with this, only tallying 9 sacks on the year, but I said it last week and I'll say it again this week - QB Jacob Fletcher makes few mistakes, but when he does, there is usually pressure involved.
3. Give them poor field position. The Eagles have not proved themselves on long drives this year and last week only scored when starting on St. Scholastica's side of the field. If your drive stalls outside their 40 yard line, opt for a punt and pin them deep on their side of the field.
Northwestern:
1. Prevent the pitch and hit Brendan Chambers. As simple as this sounds, stopping the option has proved difficult for most of the UMAC thus far as Greenville is averaging 342.2 rushing yds/game against conference opposition. If you stop the option, the Panthers' offense is limited.
2. Pass the ball. I know you like to run first, but Greenville's passing defense is only average. If you can get those defensive backs staying at home with the receivers, you will open up the field a little more for that outside zone we all know you love to run.
3. Intercept the ball. On the rare occasion that Chambers throws the ball, it's either been his receiver's ball or nobody's ball so far this year. Out of 115 attempts, he has thrown only a single interception. Picking him off might throw him off his rhythm.
Greenville:
1. Be yourself. No need to stress out. If you play the game you've been playing all year, you should pull out a victory. Northwestern is tough up front, but their defensive backs struggle with wrapping up on tackles.
2. Pressure the quarterback. Your team has struggled with this, only tallying 9 sacks on the year, but I said it last week and I'll say it again this week - QB Jacob Fletcher makes few mistakes, but when he does, there is usually pressure involved.
3. Give them poor field position. The Eagles have not proved themselves on long drives this year and last week only scored when starting on St. Scholastica's side of the field. If your drive stalls outside their 40 yard line, opt for a punt and pin them deep on their side of the field.
Greenville 35 Northwestern 20
Go Tigers -#7 Clark
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