Week 5 Predictions: Tommy's Picks

Tommy’s Picks (4 of 5 Week 4, 18 of 25 on the season)

This is a very special post, not only because I am writing it, but because we have reached a milestone at UMAC Central – we have now written 100 posts! I would like to pat myself and Jay on the back for all of our hard work and many hours of research, typing, and brainstorming clever things to say. I know you all have been waiting for this so now you can finally send your celebratory e-cards, comments, and tweets. But now on to the less important item at hand. After four weeks, Jay and I are tied at 18 correct picks each. Just like the UMAC right now, this is still anybody’s game, but I am determined to win this year.

Greenville @ Crown- After last week’s loss where the offense was unable to do much of anything, I’m sure Crown’s coaches have made plenty of adjustments in practice and will have the team ready to play this week. Unfortunately they have to play host to the Greenville Panthers this week. Last week, the Storm’s defense gave up 267 yards on the ground. They will face an even tougher challenge this week against the Panthers run game led by QB Brendan Chambers. Greenville’s rushing game is ranked 4th in Division III and I believe are tied for 3rd most rushing TDs in the nation at any level, only two behind the Oregon Ducks. If the Panthers bring their mascot along for the trip, he’s going to be doing a lot of pushups. Greenville 55 Crown 21

Northwestern @ Minnesota-Morris- Northwestern is coming off an easy win and making the drive up north where the Cougars are recovering from a heartbreaking loss. Morris’ defense played tough last week, only allowing one touchdown and 10 first downs. Their offense is what led to the loss however as they turned the ball over 3 times, 2 of those were interceptions returned for touchdowns by Eureka. The offense could not get anything going on the ground either with only 31 rushing yards on 29 attempts. Northwestern has the top ranked rushing defense in the UMAC so it will be tough to do much better against them. UNW also has a strong passing defense, second in the UMAC in interceptions with 7. I think this game will come down to how Morris’ QB Caleb McLaren and his receivers match up against the Eagles defensive backs – that is where the game will be won or lost. This could be so close I don’t know who to pick. I went with Morris last week in an attempt to reconcile our relationship, but I guess they hate us so much they lost just so I would not be happy. So this week in my second effort to reconcile, I will pick against them, so even if they don’t want me to be happy, at least they will be happy with a win. See how nice of a guy I am? Northwestern 32 Morris 28

MacMurray @ St. Scholastica- My goal in writing this pick, is to write as much as I can about the ways I believe MacMurray could come away with a win before I post what I believe will be the final score. So here goes....... ah shoot.  
 St. Scholastica 38 MacMurray 6

Iowa Wesleyan @ Martin Luther- After a beat down at Greenville last week, Martin Luther is likely looking to defending their honor and recoup a little bit of pride. Iowa Wesleyan is riding the high from their first win as a Division III program and is looking to add to their victories. Even those these teams are ranked low, I expect this to be an exciting game with lots of offense and some tough competition. Look for the Knights QB Luke Rothe to go off in this game, contributing in all areas. I'm expecting 350 total yards out of him along with at least 5 TDs. For the Tigers, I think WR Ridge Hobbs will have a heyday with the MLC defense catching a couple TDs and passing the 150 yard mark receiving. And as for our favorite LB, Jamarco Clark, I am going to predict he forces a turnover in some way and tallies up 8-10 tackles. But the only numbers that really matter, are the ones on the scoreboard when the final buzzer sounds. Martin Luther 38 Iowa Wesleyan 34

Game of the Week

Westminster @ Eureka- I am excited for this matchup as both teams are on the brink of being really good, but they are both missing a little bit of something that is keeping them back. For Eureka, I think they are missing consistency in their run game, averaging between 1.9, 2.1, 3.9, and 4.3 yards per rush in each game this year. If they can improve this, which it appears they have been doing, I expect it will open up their already solid passing game and help them to reach the next level. On the other sideline, I honestly don’t know what happened to Westminster’s passing game this year. Last year, Plassmeyer was one of the best QBs in the UMAC, averaging over 300 yards a game. I don’t know if the loss of WR James Gladstone is making all the difference, but the Blue Jays need to find someone or something to jump start their passing game. They finally have that run game they needed so dearly last year. Unless the Blue Jays find a way to get the ball to their receivers, I think Eureka holds the edge in this one. And as this is Eureka’s homecoming, I expect them to have a home field advantage and play with that extra effort for their returning alumni. Eureka 35 Westminster 27