Week 8 Predictions: Jay's Picks

Jay's Picks (3 of 5 Week 7, 27 of 40 on the season)
I got three games correct again. I believe this is the third week in a row. Consistency is a good thing, but I would like a better performance out of myself this week. I've been looking forward to this week for a while now as Eureka could make a play to get themselves in close contention for the conference championship with a victory of St. Scholastica. I'm tired of Northwestern, Greenville, and St. Scholastica being the only contenders for a championship so it's nice to have Eureka doing well this year. We also see the confused cats matchup against each other in the Greenville at Iowa Wesleyan game, more about that later. Seven weeks down, three to go.

Westminster @ Northwestern- At the start of the year, I would've though this game would be a good matchup for Westminster, their strong passing offense facing Northwestern's spotty pass coverage. However, since Westminster has switched their game plan up and relied so much on the run until recently, it is much less favorable as they face the UMAC's top rush defense in the Eagles who allow just 105.4 yards per game. Plassmeyer has recently been forced to throw more with the loss of their star running back two weeks ago, but he hasn't proven he can have the production he had last season. Northwestern is just coming off a comeback loss to Greenville last week and can't be too happy about that. They face a decent Blue Jays defense that has forced the most interceptions this year, averaging over 2 per game. But fortunately the Eagles are not as one-dimensional as the Blue Jays and can run the ball effectively with junior RB Josh Sinnen. It won't be a pretty game, but I think there will be a clear winner before the game is done. Northwestern 34 Westminster 20

Greenville @ Iowa Wesleyan- This week features Greenville at Iowa Wesleyan, or as I like to call it "The Battle of the Big Cats", where the Tigers look like panthers and the Panthers look like tigers. In case you are unaware, the Panthers have orange uniforms while the Tigers have black/purple uniforms. Someone must've been confused about their animals when they planned those school colors. Let me give you a quick refresher in case you forgot what those animals look like:

This is a panther                                                    This is a tiger.

Anyways, this is football not design class, so lets talk about the game. A few weeks ago, I would have said this is a game that Greenville should win big and win easily. And now, nothing has changed and I still believe Greenville will win easily. Even though Iowa Wesleyan has been developing as the season is going along and performing better, Greenville has been improving as well. The Tigers just don't have the talent or experience to take on the Panthers who have a team full of experienced upperclassmen both on offense and defense. Easy pick. Greenville 45 Iowa Wesleyan 14

MacMurray @ Crown- Crown claimed their second victory in a row last week, leading to their first two-game win streak since the 2010 season. MacMurray has not yet been able to find a win yet this season. The Storm have a team full of young players (60 underclassmen, 18 upperclassmen) and have been gradually developing into a respectable football team. In the last two week, Crown has more than doubled their season's rushing total, and I expect them to take that same approach this week looking to their three freshmen running backs, Duran Zachery, Josh Edlund, and Matt Michaud, to handle the carries. MacMurray has recently switched quarterbacks from Caleb Horvath to Coy Dorothy either due to injury or performance issues. Dorothy played relatively well in his first game as starter, throwing for 233 yards and 2 TDs while completing 56% of his passes against Eureka's defense. The last two games for Crown have gone into overtime, but this game will not take more than 60 minutes to be decided. Crown 28 MacMurray 13

Minnesota-Morris @ Martin Luther- Two offenses that score big against poor defenses facing two poor defenses. I'm expecting big points in this one, with breakout QB Caleb McLaren leading a powerful passing attack and Knights QB Luke Rothe doing the UMAC's best impression of Johnny Manziel. The Knights have been up and down all year, scoring 6 points one week and 68 points the next, we can't be sure which team will show up, but usually at home they put up a fight and keep it close. The Cougars average over 300 yards passing per game and Martin Luther's pass defense is the worst in the league, averaging 291 passing yards allowed per game and only picking off opposing QBs three times this season. Its anyone's game really. Martin Luther 38 Minnesota-Morris 35

Game of the Week

St. Scholastica @ Eureka- Since the Red Devils became the UMAC's surprise team of the year, I have had this game on my calender. It features the top two defenses in the UMAC in terms of points and yards allowed pitted against each other. Saints RB Jake Jensen comes off a monster game in which he rushed for 179 yards and 3 TDs. St. Scholastica is averaging 6.5 yards per carry and 263.9 yards rushing per game but they are facing a Eureka defense that I believe is the most physical defense in the UMAC, and they only allow 112.6 yards on the ground each game. Eureka has a great QB in junior Blake Robles, who has 250.4 yards per game and a TD/INT ratio of 15/4. The Red Devils rush game leaves something to be desired, but it is at least serviceable and they use it well around the goal line. I envision this game to be very similar to St. Scholastica's visit to Northwestern a few weeks ago, which was fairly low scoring. But I believe Eureka is less prone than the Eagles were to making mistakes, giving up only 6 turnovers this season. It's a big game which means, you guessed it, I've got keys to the game for each team.

St. Scholastica
1. Do not turn the ball over. Eureka will not give it back as I mentioned, they have 6 turnovers on the season while they have taken 14 from opposing teams and scoring directly off of three of those turnovers.
2. Have success in the air. Similarly to your matchup with Northwestern, it will be tough to run the ball. Eureka's defensive backfield is not as prone to errors as the Eagles, but it will be easier than trying to pound it up the middle.
3. Limit Eureka's TOP. If you didn't know, that stands for time of possession. They have controlled the ball longer than their opponent in 6/7 games this year. It's a lot easier to win games when you have the ball more. I know you only had the ball for 18 minutes last week, but you played Martin Luther, not Eureka.

Eureka
1. Do not turn the ball over. You have not been giving the ball to other teams much this year and you have been winning. I think there is a correlation.
2. Much like I said for Northwestern, do not let the St. Scholastica runners outside the tackles. They run much better when they get outside. This includes QB Tyler Harper who hurt the Eagles with some scrambles he made when his receivers were covered.
3. Control the ball. St. Scholastica will not score quickly against your defense like they did last week against Martin Luther. If your offense has the ball, it is much harder for them to score, keeping the game close. Your offense is not explosive, but it is good enough it can win this one.

Eureka 28 St. Scholastica 24