Week 5 Predictions - Tommy

Tommy’s Picks (3 of 5 Week 4, 13 of 19 on the Season)

I took a step backwards last week dropping from 5 for 5 to 3 for 5. A mere 60% for me: a D-. But it no way does that curb my enthusiasm for this week. I am expecting some good battles, maybe even an upset thrown in the mix, and a whole lot of hard-nosed football this Saturday.

MacMurray @ Greenville- Football is a game all about match-ups. And if I am Greenville there is one match-up in the UMAC that makes me absolutely start salivating. That would be a game against the worst rush defense in the UMAC and quite possibly the country. The Panthers have a dynamic ground attack as it is and they might put up 70 against the Highlanders. I am serious. If they don't take their foot off the gas pedal they could legitimately get to 70. I expect Greenville to come out in the no-huddle and run the option to 300 rushing yards and 42 points in the 1st half before coasting to an easy win. Greenville 66 MacMurray 14

Presentation @ Crown- Presentation and Crown will face off in a battle of two up and coming teams. Both of these squads are very young and inexperienced and, as you would expect, make youthful mistakes. However, they both have talent on their rosters and seem to be moving in thew right direction. With teams like these, all game experience is vitally important for building toward the future. This is the present, though, and at this point in time I give the edge to Crown. Of the two teams, Crown appears to be more disciplined and does have some leadership from upperclassmen. With this being only Presentation's second year of existence I still see too many silly mistakes. While I think the Saints have more overall talent, I think Crown is more prepared to win this weekend at home. Give me Crown by a touchdown. Crown 27 Presentation 20

Westminster @ Minnesota Morris - The battle of the two most disappointing teams in the UMAC. I cannot decide which team has let me down more this year. I had higher expectations for Westminster, but after losing 2 conference games before playing Scholastica and Greenville it is clear that they are tanking hard. I expected mediocrity out of Morris and I guess I cannot be disappointed that they are in fact what I expected. Still, their inability to even be competitive with Northwestern and Greenville is depressing. Somehow, I expect Morris to win this weekend. They will probably lose now that I picked them, but I have to go with my gut which is telling me that Westminster's focus will be lacking after a tough loss to Eureka. Morris 28 Westminster 27

Martin Luther @ Eureka - When Eureka has the ball this will be an exciting game matching up a good offense against a good defense. When Martin Luther has the ball everyone will just be praying that they can keep from pitching the ball to the other team. Of course, Eureka's corners will probably have their backs to the quarterback so they won't even know what is happening. Bottom line: Eureka is a better team. They have more experience and Martin Luther's offense hasn't figured it out yet. The Knights defense could give the Red Devils some fits but I have to go with the team I think is better overall. Eureka 21 Martin Luther 7

Game of the Week

Northwestern @ St. Scholastica - The conference comes down to this game. That is not to say that Greenville cannot beat Northwestern. In fact, I think they can. But, Northwestern is the last team on the schedule that can beat Scholastica so the Panthers better become Northwestern fans for this week. I still do not feel like I really know who Northwestern is yet. They have yet to play what I would consider a legitimate opponent in the conference. And that is not there fault. They have to play who they have on the schedule - and they have steamrolled their opponents thus far. But you will forgive me if I am less than impressed with wins over Westminster, Presentation, MacMurray, and Morris. Scholastica has also dominated the UMAC for the most part. They blew out Greenville and Eureka before escaping a tight one against Martin Luther. I have to think that the fact that Northwestern has yet to have to play an entire four quarters hurts them in this matchup. The Saints have had a couple tight games against Whitworth and Martin Luther. 
We will see how these teams react to each other. Scholastica has yet to see a pass rush like the one that Northwestern presents with Josh Swore and Nathan Van Zee coming off the edges. Similarly, the Eagles have yet to see anything near the talent that the Saints will put out on the field since their embarrassing loss to St. John's. 

I expect a relatively low scoring affair in this one. I think both teams will be moderately conservative, particularly in the early going,  seeking to avoid the big mistake. They will both try to shorten the game by controlling the clock and establishing the run. I think the x-factor in this one will be the in-game adjustments that the coaches make. And if that is the determining factor, I like St. Scholastica. Last season, the Saints went to halftime leading the Eagles by a mere 7 points. In the second half, they opened it up, out scoring the Eagles 28-7. I predict that history will repeat itself  to some extent. I like Northwestern to get ahead early and lead at halftime but the Saints will come back and pull out a close one behind big plays from Tyler Harper and Nick Thiry. St. Scholastica 24 Northwestern 17