Week 5 Predictions- Jay

Jay’s Picks (4 of 5 Week 4, 16 of 19 on the Season)

If you love UMAC football, it doesn’t get any better than this weekend. Besides the Highlanders, sorry guys, every team in the UMAC has a very good shot at winning their game this weekend. Every game was extremely difficult to pick a winner, once again except for the Highlanders. Most importantly, the UMAC championship could be decided this weekend. Everyone will surely have their eyes on that game this weekend.

(NOTE: Tommy's Picks will be up later today)

MacMurray @ Greenville- MacMurray’s defense is allowing 231.4 rushing yards a game. Hold on. It gets better. They play Greenville this week. As in they haven’t played Greenville yet. As in if you do that math… well you get the point. At least Minnesota Morris had already played Greenville when I mentioned last week how many rushing yards Minnesota Morris was allowing per game. Granted, Greenville’s average of 346.8 rushing yards a game constitutes 80% of their offense, but still MacMurray hasn’t been able to stop anyone from running all over them all year. RB Immanuel Gamble said that last week was his 4^th or 5^th best game as a collegiate athlete. I’m willing to bet that this week will be just as good if QB Brendan Chambers doesn’t steal the show by himself. Greenville 52 MacMurray 14

Presentation @ Crown- This has the makings of a very good football game. Two very young teams with a lot of potential will square off this Saturday. In order for Crown to be successful, RB Amos Schmidt needs to have a big day running the football. Presentation has a lot of speed on defense and uses its quickness to shoot gaps which opens up cutbacks to wide open running lanes. Both teams have given up 13 turnovers a piece on the season, so I think it will come down to who takes care of the ball on offense and who is opportunistic on defense. I have been high on Crown all year, and I think they take a big step this weekend.

Crown 22 Presentation 20

Westminster @ Minnesota Morris- Both of these teams have to be pretty disappointed on how the season has gone so far. Westminster just can’t seem to find its mojo from last year against good teams. Meanwhile, everyone knows Minnesota Morris’s problem. We have ripped on the two-QB system all year, but Morris keeps on rolling two QB’s out every week—and losing. They are the New York Jets of the UMAC. Don’t tell me there isn’t controversy in the locker room ranging from players questioning the coaches to players debating which QB should start to what pregame music to listen to. Ok, the Cougars are probably pretty united on music. Enough with my Morris rant. In a nutshell, Westminster will win this weekend if QB Joe Plassmeyer doesn’t give the other team the ball. Westminster 38 Minnesota Morris 24

Martin Luther @ Eureka- I love this matchup. This game would have been the game of the week in my mind if you know who weren’t playing each other. In fact, I dub this the “Game of the Week that is not really the Game of the Week, but it would be any other Week.” Try saying that 10 times as fast as you can. Martin Luther might have the best defense in the conference. Let me repeat that, Martin Luther might have the best defense in the conference. Sure St. Scholastica’s numbers are better, but Martin Luther doesn’t have anything close to as good an offense and is on the field more. This team is only allowing 16.4 points a game and 282.2 yards a game, and that’s with an offense that turns the ball over A LOT. Ask St. Scholastica what they think about the Knights defense. Eureka will try to test Martin Luther’s secondary much the same way that Westminster attacked them in week 3. I think it will come down to the QB’s. If Knight QB Luke Rothe can sustain what he did on offense last week, watch out. Eureka QB Sam Durley can certainly put up a big game as well. Does the number 736 ring a bell? I love the Knights defense, but I don’t trust that offense yet so I’ll have to go with the home team. Eureka 27 Martin Luther 21

GAME OF THE WEEK

Northwestern @ St. Scholastica- Personally, I can’t remember two teams who stack up as well against each other in the UMAC as these two teams in recent years. Sure, Northwestern’s offense looks better but they haven’t played the competition that St. Scholastica has. It is tough to argue with the production of QB Josh Balzer, who has been outstanding, WR Brian Lecheler, and RB’s Chris Simon-Wallace and Josh Sinnen. St. Scholastica’s offense is more physical and RB’s Jake Jensen and Travis Nehowig have been excellent all season long. I don’t think anyone can argue the fact that St. Scholastica has the better defense. The secondary has played extremely well led by Mike Lavalley, and the Saints boast the top ranked run defense in the conference. Northwestern has lived on the big play from both their passing and running game all season long, but they haven’t played a defense as good as St. Scholastica nor have they played a team that can match them athlete for athlete. Meanwhile, St. Scholastica has not faced a team that is as balanced or as explosive as Northwestern. This game is so big, I am going to give some keys for each team they need to follow if they want to win the game and then finish with my prediction.

Northwestern:

<   1.     Run the football. If they can’t, their play action passing game is in big trouble.

   1.A Stop the run. St. Scholastica will want to run the football all game if they can.

     2.    Put pressure on QB Tyler Harper and force him into mistakes.

     3.    Be patient on offense. Things have come very easy for the Eagles so far. Good things come to those who wait.

St. Scholastica:

      1.    Eliminate the big play. Force Northwestern’s offense to make long, sustained drives to score.

    1.A Shut down WR Brian Lecheler. Make somebody else beat you.
2.   Pass the ball effectively, and take advantage of mismatches in the secondary.  

      3.   Physically dominate and impose your will.  

Key Matchups and Focus Areas:

     1.     CSS O-LINE vs. NWC DE’s Josh Swore and Nathan Van Zee

     2.    CSS WR’s Nick Thiry and Cory Gebhard vs. NWC SECONDARY especially the LB’s.  

     3.    NWC QB Josh Balzer vs. CSS QB Tyler Harper

     4.     NWC 3^rd down offense vs. CSS 3^rd down defense.

     5.    Coaching staffs—who can make the big adjustments during the game?

     6.     Turnovers—this goes without saying I suppose.

     7.     Special teams—could a special team’s play dictate the outcome of the game? Both teams have solid field goal kickers. 

Prediction: I think this game will come down to the wire, and it will be a physical, emotional, and intense game. Nobody is running away with this game. There is simply too much on the line for both teams. So here it is. My prediction. I haven’t picked against the Saints all year and I am not going to start now. I think St. Scholastica is the more consistent and steady team, and they are at home. With those two things going for them, I have to pick the Saints to win the UMAC championship.

St. Scholastica 31 Northwestern 28